Sarasota, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

996
FXUS62 KTBW 081229
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
829 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Currently at the surface, a weak area of low pressure is spinning
over the eastern Gulf, with south and southwest low level flow
continuing to pump tropical moisture into the Florida Peninsula.
This low will slowly drift west Tuesday and open up into a weak
wave by Wednesday and Thursday in the central Gulf, while a weak
frontal boundary limps south into central Florida. This setup will
keep the area in the same pattern as the last few days, with
showers and storms lingering over the eastern Gulf during the
overnight and morning hours, at times pushing into the coast. By
early afternoon, convection will then start to develop over the
Florida Peninsula, with a few storms pushing back west into the
waters during the early evening. With abundant atmospheric
moisture available and training showers, the marginal risk of
excessive rainfall leading to flooding will continue each day
through Wednesday across the area.
Wednesday through next weekend, the frontal boundary will
gradually shift south through the area, with drier conditions
creeping into the forecast area from north to south. This will
lower rain chances over the Nature Coast Wednesday and Thursday,
although deep moisture will continue to fuel numerous storms from
around Interstate 4 south. However, as this dry air continues to
work in Friday through next weekend, rain coverage will be held to
isolated to scattered across the area. Otherwise, while the front
will not do much to actually drop temperatures, surface dew
points will be several degrees lower by this weekend, limiting
humidity somewhat.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 827 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A front to our north is continuing to give us a wet weather
pattern. Current seeing some IFR and MVFR CIGS in our northern TAF
sites which should break down in the next couple of hours. After
that showers will be possible for much of the day. Tried to
highlight the best chance for thunderstorms with TEMPO groups for
each TAF location. Winds should generally stay below 10 knots out
of the east and southeast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A weak surface area of low pressure will continue to swirl over
the eastern and central Gulf waters throughout the first half of
the week, bringing numerous to widespread thunderstorms each day.
Timing of rain chances will be mainly in the overnight and morning
hours, then thunderstorms will develop over the Florida Peninsula
in the afternoon, with a few storms possibly shifting back into
the coastal waters during the evening. Late next week, easterly
winds should favor a more typical afternoon thunderstorm pattern.
Winds over the eastern Gulf north of Tarpon Springs will increase
to around Small Craft Exercise Caution levels for a few hours
tonight. Otherwise, winds are generally expected to remain below
headline criteria, outside of daily thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Deep moisture holding over the area will bring widespread
thunderstorms each of the next couple of days. No humidity
concerns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  76  86  76 /  80  60  80  50
FMY  90  75  88  76 /  80  60  80  50
GIF  90  74  89  74 /  80  50  80  40
SRQ  89  74  86  74 /  80  70  80  60
BKV  89  72  86  71 /  80  60  80  40
SPG  87  75  85  75 /  80  60  80  60
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion