Saxtons River, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

738
FXUS61 KALY 182341
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
741 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through eastern New York and western New England
tonight and tomorrow. Cooler temperatures are in store once the
front moves through early next week. Dry conditions continue this
weekend into early next week. Warmer temperatures and chances for
precipitation return for midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
After a mostly sunny day, clouds continue to move in from the
northwest tonight ahead of a cold front that will move through
eastern New York and western New England tonight and tomorrow
from west to east. Cooler temperatures are in store behind the
front as well dry conditions continuing. There are low chances
tonight across northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties for a
rain shower, but mostly dry conditions continue and
precipitation amounts of less than 0.05 inches could occur in
any rain shower tonight there. Surface high pressure builds in
tomorrow with wind speeds between 10 and 15 mph. Winds could
gust up to 20 mph across the Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital
District, and the Berkshires tomorrow afternoon before calm
winds return late tomorrow afternoon continuing into this
weekend.
Surface high pressure returns to eastern New York and western New
England continuing our dry conditions trend from Friday through
Monday morning. For Friday night into Saturday morning, clear skies
overhead and calm winds will help contribute for patchy and areas of
frost across Hamilton and northern Herkimer counties on Saturday
morning. We`ll continue to monitor trends for low temperatures and
winds for potential headlines for tomorrow night into Saturday
morning. High temperatures gradually warm from the 60s and low 70s
to the upper 70s and low 80s by Tuesday next week. For Monday and
Tuesday, lots of uncertainty with ensemble forecast model
guidances for if dry conditions persist or an upper level
shortwave moves through bringing low to moderate chances of rain
shower activity. Latest ensemble guidances are hinting at some
agreement on rain shower activity for Wednesday across eastern
New York and western New England. So we continued the trend of
slight chance to chance for probability of precipitation during
this timeframe. Overnight low temperatures range in the 50s and
60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sat...VFR conditions early tonight with an
approaching cold front. Mostly clear/partly cloudy skies may
allow some IFR or lower conditions due to radiational mist/fog
forming at KGFL 04Z-08Z/Fri and 07-11Z/Fri at KPOU. Some
stratus and mid level clouds may limit the mist/fog threat at
KALB/KGFL. KPSF is challenging, as some mist/fog and a low
stratus deck may form prior to the front. Conditions may lower
to IFR/LIFR levels at KPSF 06Z-12Z/Fri. Some post frontal MVFR
stratus will likely impact KGFL/KALB/KPSF prior to noon time
with cigs 1.5-3.0 kft AGL. The stratus should decrease to sct-
bkn after 16Z/Fri with cigs/vsbys VFR. KPOU should remain VFR
after any radiational mist that may form. The winds will be west
to southwest at 7 KT or less early tonight and will become
variable in direction to calm. The winds will increase
north/northwest around 10 KT with a few gust 15-20 KT or so in
the late morning into the afternoon.
Outlook...
Fri Night to Mon: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tue: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front brings a cooler and drier air mass Friday into the
weekend. The front may bring a shower or two to areas north and
west of Albany tonight, but most areas will remain dry. Any
showers that do occur will bring very light amounts. Behind the
front, north to northwest winds will generally be between 10-15
mph tomorrow with some localized gusts up to 20 mph. RH values
range between 35 and 50 percent during the afternoon hours.
Despite RH values lowering to the 25 to 35 percent range on
Saturday, winds will range between calm to light and variable
at less than 10 mph.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Webb
DISCUSSION...Webb
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun/Webb

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion