Scandia, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

809
FXUS63 KTOP 010735
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
235 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is about a 10% chance for a shower to pop up across the area
  through tonight.
- There is good confidence in above normal temperatures continuing
  through Saturday.
- There is a 20-40% chance of precipitation Sunday night through
  Tuesday, but lower predictability in the forecast means the
  details could change.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The synoptic pattern was driven by a closed upper low off the
Pacific Northwest coast and weak ridging over the OH river valley per
the 07Z water vapor imagery. A weak shortwave trough was lifting
into the middle MO river valley. Surface obs showed a weak pattern
over the central plains with a surface trough along the lee of the
central Rockies and broad high pressure to the east.
For today and Tonight, an increase in mid level warm air advection
and isentropic lift is forecast in response to low pressure over the
northern high plains. CAMs have been relatively consistent in
developing elevated showers and storms along a narrow axis of
isentropic lift just west of the forecast area, and latest satellite
is showing ACCAS developing over western KS and central NEB. The RAP
and NAM keep the better lift just west of the forecast area with the
possibility for something to drift into the area after sunrise. So
have held onto some slight chance POPs. For this evening and
overnight, the isentropic lift is less organized and doesn`t have
the focus the appears to be unfolding now. As a result the CAMs are
much more isolated with any elevated shower. Because of this have
kept POPs less than 15 percent. For temps, models show modest
warming at 925MB and 850MB. This along with a little more sunshine
is expected to bump highs up a degree or two over Tuesday`s
readings.
Confidence in the forecast through the workweek and into Saturday
remains good as models show little spread. A mid level ridge axis is
expected to redevelop over the southwest and into the central plains
for Thursday and Friday allowing temps to trend warmer and limit
forcing for precip. By Sunday through Tuesday, models continues to
show varying solutions with an upper trough developing over the
west. And there has not been the best consistency from model run to
run. With larger spreads in the ensembles, confidence decreases but
the overall idea for some chances for precip remain. It is just the
details that may still be adjusted as things get closer in time. For
now operational solutions show a shortwave lifting mainly northwest
of the forecast area Saturday night. This may help a weak surface
front to move south and eventually stall across the central plains
Sunday night through Tuesday. This boundary may act as a focus for
convergence and lift, especially during the overnight as models
develop a low level jet. The lower predictability in the forecast
argues for sticking with the blend which has some 30 to 40 percent
chance POPs Sunday night as the boundary potentially moves into the
forecast area. Small chance POPs remain in the forecast for Monday
and Tuesday while models have the stationary boundary in the region.
Although shortwave ridging may develop by Tuesday making nocturnal
precip the main mode if we are to get precip. Just with precip
chances, spreads in forecast temps early next week are 10 to 15
degrees between the 25 and 75 percentiles. A lot of this is a
reflection on the uncertainty in where the surface front sets up.
The NBM shows a cooling trend which seems reasonable, but there
remains a fair amount of room for the forecast to fluctuate.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Elevated showers within a narrow warm air advection pattern shown by
the last couple HRRR runs is expected to remain west of the
terminals. Breaks in the high clouds could allow for ground fog to
redevelop at TOP this morning. Confidence in the forecast is to low
to include and any fog should be temporary. In general VFR conditions
should prevail with light easterly winds becoming more southerly
late in the morning.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion