Scobey, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

722
FXUS65 KGGW 222022
AFDGGW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
222 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Gusty northwest winds and slight chances for rain continue
  through this afternoon behind the cold front passage.
- A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect through 6pm today.
- The remainder of the week will be warm and dry.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A narrow upper trough is working its way though east through
central Montana. This trough is expected to push south then east,
forming a partially closed low. This will form the eastern low on
a quasi omega block with another low off the southern California
coast. The upper ridge of the system will extend north into
Montana by midweek with fast zonal flow over Canada.
Cooler temperatures will also drop south behind the front, before
warming into midweek with the building ridge. Temperatures level
off after midweek with the Canadian zonal flow becoming more
dominant for northeast Montana.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
The upper low centered off the coast of California has decent
model agreement through Friday, the timing in which it moves off
or dissipates is less certain. While this low remains it will
drive mostly zonal flow with the possibility for shortwave
troughing/ridging that may cause small disturbances in northeast
Montana.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATE: 1930Z, September 22
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: Clear skies will return to the region by tomorrow
morning. Broken midlevel clouds will continue to push eastward
while chances of rain remain in southern and central Montana.
WIND: Gusty northwest winds will continue through the
evening. By 6Z winds will calm to 4 to 5 kts and become variable.
After 14Z tomorrow a partially closed low moving through southern
Montana will cause a wind shift from generally west winds ahead
of the low to south winds behind the low.
EQUIPMENT: KSDY AMD NOT SKED will remain in place
until METARs comms issue is repaired.
&&
.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow

NWS GGW Office Area Forecast Discussion