Scranton, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

510
FXUS61 KBGM 272346
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
746 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates the weather pattern for the coming
week, ensuring predominantly dry conditions other than a few
isolated light showers or sprinkles tonight around the Poconos
and southern Catskills. It will be warm Sunday and temperatures
remain above average through Tuesday. A colder, Canadian high
pressure system descends from the north Wednesday to bring
below average temperatures. This could yield at least scattered
frost in sheltered, typically colder valleys by Wednesday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is a weak upper level wave moving northeast from the Carolinas
tonight. This wave will get sheared out by the stronger
westerlies to the north. There could be a sprinkle or two
reaching Poconos/Catskills and will have in grids as per NBM
tonight. This wave exits region late tonight as a weak surface
high pressure ridge builds in by 12z Sunday. Guidance shows high
clouds for much of the night which should limit widespread
valley fog Sunday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure under a building upper air ridge, strengthens
over the region keeping all tropical activity well south of
central NY and northeast PA through mid-week. Monday morning
will likely see much more fog formation as high clouds remain
south of region. Then for Monday during the day, high pressure
weakens leaving a "col" region over NY and PA as the tropical
system affects the southeast coast as yet another Canadian high
begins to press down from the north Monday night. Weather will
be fair and mild through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another large and chilly high pressure system builds south
Tuesday and covers the region through Saturday. This high will
keep prolonged northeast winds over our area through Thursday
continuing cool Canadian air moving over our region. Thursday
morning we may see the potential for more frost and potentially
some freezing temperatures in our normally colder areas.
Then for Friday and Saturday, the high pressure slowly builds east
and leads to a moderating trend by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00z Update...
Mid and high level clouds will continue streaming over the area
through the evening and early overnight hours. These clouds are
VFR, with bases between 5-20k ft agl. A few light, unrestrictive
rain showers are possible at AVP through the evening hours.
The mid and high level clouds are forecast to exit east of the
area between 7-9z early Sunday morning, clearing the way for
valley fog formation as a surface high builds in from the
southwest. Guidance continues to show a high probability for
IFR/LIFR fog at ELM, starting between 7-9z and then settling in
from about 9-14z Sunday morning. Current thinking is the fog
will mostly not be deep enough to impact BGM or ITH, and SYR
should remain VFR/clear Sunday morning. RME could see some
TEMPO, MVFR light fog and mist around for the early morning
hours...as well as AVP, as the light rain could help increase
fog depth and formation here as skies clear.
The valley fog should burn off slightly earlier than it did
Saturday morning, as it is not forecast to be quite as
deep/thick and widespread. Therefore, after 13/14z conditions
should clear and it should be VFR areawide Sunday afternoon and
evening with SKC conditions or a few high clouds.
Outlook...
Sunday evening through Thursday...Mainly VFR, other than
typical valley fog formation especially KELM late each night
through dawn each morning.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...MJM/MDP

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion