Seaton Dump, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

522
FXUS64 KLZK 190505
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1205 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
-Some strong to severe thunderstorms possible this
afternoon/evening...with the best chances over NW sections of the
area. Damaging winds...large hail...and locally heavy rainfall
possible with strongest activity
-Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue nearly every day
into the middle of next week, with the best chances for seeing more
scattered/numerous showers/storms on Fri
-Hot/humid conditions will continue today...then somewhat cooler
conditions are expected late this week into the middle of next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Looking for a near repeat in the forecast this Thu compared to what
was observed on Wed...with highs in the 80s and 90s...and continued
chances for afternoon convection. However...do think the coverage of
convection...especially over WRN sections...will be a bit better.
Expect more numerous SHRA/TSRA for WRN sections...which will be
result of an upper shortwave approaching from the west. While
widespread SVR Wx is not expected...a few strong to SVR storms could
be seen this afternoon. This will be mainly across WRN/NWRN
sections...with the approach of the shortwave. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary threats with the strongest
storms...with locally heavy rain also possible.
By Fri...the aforementioned shortwave will move into the state from
the west...bringing better chances for more numerous convection on
Fri into Fri night for a larger portion of the state. Given this
upper shortwave will weaken as it approaches...will continue with
the potential for organized strong to SVR Wx to remain low on Fri.
Again...this doesn`t rule out any isolated strong/SVR convection
still being possible however.
Flow aloft will become more persistently NW by the weekend into
early next week. Additional upper waves will pass over the region in
this NW flow aloft...with some continued POPs forecast through the
end of the forecast. In fact...there are some indications a closed
upper low may move into the region by the middle of next week. This
will mostly likely keep temps cooler than in the past week...at
least a bit closer to normal for mid/late Sep. Details on best
precip chances will be a bit more uncertain however...given timing
differences of the upper low moving into the region...and what upper
waves may pass overhead and when.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible again Friday afternoon and
evening bring the chance of IFR/MVFR flight conditions where rain
sets up. Storms will mostly be scattered, widespread coverage is
not expected at this time. Winds will be mostly light and variable
overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  65  92  67 /  40  10  10  10
Camden AR         89  66  93  68 /  40  10  10   0
Harrison AR       84  63  85  65 /  50  10  20  30
Hot Springs AR    88  66  92  68 /  50  10  10  10
Little Rock   AR  88  68  91  71 /  30  10  10   0
Monticello AR     92  68  95  71 /  30  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      88  64  91  67 /  50  10  10  10
Mountain Home AR  87  63  88  65 /  40  10  10  20
Newport AR        91  66  92  68 /  30  20  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     91  66  93  69 /  30  10   0   0
Russellville AR   89  66  92  68 /  40  10  10  10
Searcy AR         90  66  92  68 /  30  10  10  10
Stuttgart AR      89  68  93  71 /  20  10   0   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...73

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion