Sebastopol, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

040
FXUS64 KHGX 011052
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Dry conditions persist through Thursday. Continue to use caution when
  working with open flame or equipment that can cause sparks and
  start a fire.
- Rain chances rise on Friday into the weekend when moisture
  deepens enough to allow for some isolated seabreeze
  showers/storms along the coast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Forecast remains on track as drier conditions remain the status quo
through Thursday. Slim to none rain chances still anticipated
throughout this period with relative humidity dropping to 27-40
percent during the afternoon hours. These conditions with the
presence of dry vegetation & fuels has resulted in enhanced fire
weather concerns across the area. While these conditions are
conducive for starting fires, the low wind speeds and gusts should
inhibit their spread, making for easier containment thus mitigating
the fire weather danger. Still, use caution when working with
open flames, and be mindful of equipment which could create
sparks.
Ridging builds over the Plains on Friday while easterly flow
develops near the surface from a coastal trough over the Gulf. This
will tighten the pressure gradient over the waters, resulting in
a rise in winds and seas. In addition, moisture advection will
strengthen, resulting in a daily risk of showers/storms. Initially
these rain chances will be restricted to more coastal locations
south of I-10, but as this moisture builds next week, we could see
rain chances reach further inland. Still, the best chances for
any showers/storms throughout this period of the forecast will be
along the coast and over the waters. Temperatures will be
generally above normal throughout the forecast period (3-10
degrees or so), with highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid/lower
90s.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions and light winds will prevail throughout the TAF
period. By the early afternoon, winds will be predominantly
northeasterly around 4-7 kt. For terminals closer to the coast,
winds will transition to easterly in the mid to late afternoon
before becoming light and variable once again shortly after
sunset.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Light sea breeze, land breeze driven winds are expected through
Thursday. Afterwards, a coastal trough will set up a long easterly
fetch with winds of around 15-20 knots gusting to 25 knots offshore.
This will usher in seas of 4 to 6 feet as well, prompting caution
flags on Friday and Saturday. Small Craft Advisories could be needed
during this period as well, should the long fetch & coastal trough
bring seas to 7 ft or frequent gusts over 20 knots. Around this
time, scattered showers and storms will return to the forecast. Rain
chances should then rise over the waters heading into next week.
03
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Active burn bans in SE Texas: Madison, Colorado, and Wharton
counties.
Dry conditions continue over the next few days with afternoon RH
values dropping to 27-40% for inland areas through Thursday. Fuels
are generally dry on the whole, with observed 10 hour fuel moisture
below the 25th and 10th percentiles over portions of SE Texas.
Driest fuels are generally located in our northwestern counties,
where some locations are forecasted to see fuel moisture fall below
the 3rd percentile. On the other hand, speeds and gusts will remain
generally light during this period, favorable for firefighting
efforts and thus mitigating the overall fire weather threat.
Bottom line, areas across SE Texas will be vulnerable to wildfires
due to the dry conditions. As mentioned previously, those preforming
land clearing should exercise caution, ensuring any fires are
contained and have contingency plans should they grow out of
control. Individuals should be mindful of equipment that could
create unintended sparks, (i.e. loose chains) especially in areas
with flammable surfaces.
Easterly flow and rising moisture on Friday will lead to improved
rain chances over the weekend.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  67  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  94  71  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  76  91  77 /   0   0  10  20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion