Selfridge Air National Guard, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

938
FXUS63 KDTX 090834
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
434 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Pleasant, dry September weather through Friday.
- Temperatures climb above normal by Wednesday, persisting into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
Dry airmass and pronounced surface ridging will continue to support
clear-mostly clear skies today and tonight, outside of some high
clouds. Very light winds through the taf period, and mainly out of
the south today. Very limited potential for shallow fog development
remains toward sunrise this morning and around sunrise tomorrow
morning.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
DISCUSSION...
Large 1028mb surface anticyclone is centered over the Northeast
United States this morning with a trailing surface ridge axis back
across the central Great Lakes. Positioning of Southeast Michigan
relative to the center of high pressure has an organized east to
southeast gradient flow over the forecast area. Plan view progs of
moisture supports just a gradual, and fairly shallow (4.0 to 6.0 kft
agl) increase in moisture during the next few days. The net result
will be plenty of sunshine with variable clouds particularly as high
cloud passes through tonight and Wednesday. High temperatures today
are forecasted to reach the middle 70s with around 80 degree
readings Wednesday through Saturday.
A moisture axis sandwiched between the surface ridge axis over
Southeast Michigan and the cold stable high pressure northern Canada
will settle southward and stall out over northern Lower Michigan
Wednesday and Thursday. No precipitation is expected over the cwa
with dry and stable conditions between 6.0 and 15.0 kft agl.
The next legitimate chance for more widespread precipitation appears
set for Saturday and early Sunday. Guidance has been suggestive that
organized and sizable shortwave will be shunted and sheared directly
across Lower Michigan.  Uncertainty is fairly high and lower
confidence exists as the models suggest a fairly blocked and stable
pattern will undergo a rapid transition here locally and to the
northeast. A lot of moving parts yet on how the shortwave will come
together and its timing. There was a fairly big change in the 09.00Z
operational ECMWF run with regards to the large wavelength pattern
Saturday through Day 7 Monday.
MARINE...
Southerly flow in place today now that the high pressure center has
shifted to the Northeastern US. A weak cold front sliding over Lake
Superior tightens the gradient during this morning, particularly
over the northern half of Lake Huron, allowing winds to increase
towards 15-20kts. This front largely washes out as the parent low
moves into Quebec as high pressure re-expands across the region for
the latter half of the week bringing another extended period of
generally lighter winds and dry weather.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SF
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......KDK
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion