Severance, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

994
FXUS63 KEAX 022320
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Above normal conditions continue through the weekend. High
  temperatures as much as 12-15 degrees above normal.
* Precipitation chances (up to 60%) return late Sunday into Monday.
* Cooler, more seasonal temperatures starting Monday and becoming
  more widespread by mid-week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
The warm and dry pattern continues as mid to upper level ridging
resides over the Great Plains and is slowly tracking to the east
approaching our area. A stout mid to upper level low is situated
just off of the western Canada/U.S. coast. At the surface, high
pressure is dominant over the eastern U.S. For today, as the mid to
upper level ridge nears the area, mid-level height rises coupled
with southerly winds (due to the surface high to the east) have
allowed temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s. These
temperatures happen to be roughly 12-15 degrees above normal for
this time of year. Going into tomorrow, mid-level heights increase
as the trough in the west makes landfall over California aiding in
the amplification of the ridge as it moves over our area. This,
coupled with persistent southerly winds will allow high temperatures
for tomorrow to be a few degrees warmer than today. Highs for
tomorrow are anticipated to reach the upper 80s to low 90s keeping
us well above normal for this time of year.
Going into the weekend, the mid to upper level trough over the
western U.S. helps develop a surface low and a partnering,
northeast/southwest-oriented cold front over the northern Great
Plains as it pushes farther east. Above normal temperatures will
persist through the weekend with southerly flow out ahead of the
surface front and the mid to upper level ridge still remaining
prevalent over the area. Highs for this weekend will mostly range
around the mid to upper 80s.
Low-end chances for precipitation return as early as Sunday morning
mainly for northeastern KS and northwestern MO with a weak band of
vorticity at H500 collocated with a ribbon of moisture. A low-level
jet intensifies also increasing moisture transport into northwest
MO. However, given the dry layer near the surface, any precipitation
will have trouble reaching the ground. Late Sunday into Monday, as
the cold front moves through the area, better precipitation chances
(30-60%) arrive. Given the the limited instability and weak shear,
no severe is anticipated at this time. By mid-next week,
temperatures return to seasonal normals on the backside of the cold
front, ranging in the upper 60 to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast, with generally
clear skies through the overnight and into tomorrow. During the
afternoon hours, scattered CU develop with bases around 5000 ft.
Winds may also increase to between 10-12kts with very sporadic
gusts to 20kts.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...CDB

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion