Sharpes, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

305
FXUS62 KMLB 200630
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
230 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Persistent northeast winds will lead to a moderate risk of rip
  currents at all Atlantic beaches today. Always swim near a life
  guard!
- Below-normal rain and storm chances forecast through this
  weekend, with a return to near-normal rain chances early next
  week as moisture increases locally.
- Temperatures remain within a few degrees of normal through
  early next week due to persistent onshore flow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A combination of sounding, satellite, and radar data show an
environment hostile to the development of convection this morning,
with abnormally low PWATs (as low as 1.2") stretched across the
central peninsula. Outside of a few low-topped showers over the
adjacent Atlantic waters, conditions are dry across the area. Models
suggest PWATs returning to around 1.4 - 1.6" this afternoon (still
below the mean and median for this time of year), which would
support a low chance (less than 20%) for onshore-moving showers this
morning, transitioning to isolated diurnal activity over the
interior this afternoon. Maintained a silent (10%) PoP for thunder
as instability remains minimal. Northeast flow, up to 20 mph along
the coast, will keep temps close to their mid-September
climatological average (upper 80s), around 90 over the interior.
Similar conditions are expected Sunday as onshore flow filters in
a maritime airmass over the central peninsula, with PWATs ranging
between 1.5 - 1.7", suggesting a continued low chance (20-35%)
for maritime showers that will transition inland in the afternoon.
Overall, conditions remain hostile to deep convection, so
probability of thunder remains at or below 20% at this time.
Guidance continues to highlight a complicated mid- and upper-
level pattern over the central and eastern CONUS next week, with
several shortwave features expected to morph into a larger upper
level low by Tuesday. This feature is expected to close off and
pivot eastward as an omega block pattern potentially develops by
weeks end. Locally, shortwave energy is shown passing overhead the
area Monday before mid-level ridging builds in (albeit
temporarily) toward mid week. The cutoff low may influence the
forecast at the end of the forecast period, though its placement
will dictate to what extent.
Moisture levels increase areawide early next week, resulting in rain
chances closer to climatology (30-50%). Guidance, particularly the
GFS, enhances precipitation coverage late Monday into Tuesday as
shortwave energy moves overhead, so rain chances may need to be
raised further, particularly across the south. Temperatures are
forecast to trend slightly higher next week as weak ridging builds
aloft.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Persistent northeast winds of 10-15 knots, up to 20 knots at
times, will lead to an increasing wind chop and seas of 3 to 5
feet this weekend. Though winds are forecast to trend closer to
10 knots next week, an incoming swell will keep seas 3 to 5 feet.
Drier than usual air will keep shower and thunderstorm coverage
below normal through Sunday, though moisture returns early next
week, leading to greater coverage of showers and storms by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A corridor of drier air will largely keep conditions dry thru the
TAF period. VFR with light N to NE winds thru 12z, then NNE winds
increase 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt (esp. at coastal sites)
15z-00z. Slightly greater moisture MLB northward could allow for
VCSH to return but for now, probabilities are too low to include.
Lighter winds resume (10 kt or less) after 00z-03z Sun.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  73  87  74 /  20   0  20  10
MCO  91  72  91  74 /  20   0  20  10
MLB  87  76  87  76 /  20  10  20  20
VRB  89  74  89  75 /  20  10  30  20
LEE  90  71  90  73 /  20   0  10   0
SFB  89  72  89  73 /  20   0  20  10
ORL  90  73  89  74 /  20   0  10  10
FPR  88  73  88  74 /  20  20  30  20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ulrich
AVIATION...Schaper

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion