Shaw A F B, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

253
FXUS62 KCAE 191800
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of a few isolated showers this afternoon and Saturday,
the area remains generally dry as high pressure builds over the
area this weekend. Above average temperatures can also be
expected through the weekend. Dry conditions continue into
midweek before the next chances for rain arrive.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Isolated showers this afternoon
A persistent upper level pattern will keep the weather for the
forecast area fairly similar to the previous few days. Shortwave
energy will move over a relatively dry air mass this afternoon.
The shortwaves will provide just enough enhancement of diurnally
driven convection to get a few isolated, shallow showers to
develop. Showers will be most likely south of I-20 where PWAT
values are approaching 1.5 inches per the GOES derived satellite
imagery. Rainfall amounts of a few hundredths are possible in
some of the longer lived showers. Convection will wane with
sunset leading to another mostly clear night with light winds.
Expect near ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight with
lows generally in the mid 60s and patchy fog possible early
Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Warm and mainly dry conditions continue through the weekend.
We`re expected to be in between an upper trough just to our
south and a developing ridge to our north while surface high
pressure builds in from the north. As a result, the area is
forecast to be mainly dry and warm Saturday. However, much of
the guidance is indicating that a vorticity max moves through
the area Saturday, which could be enough to spark an isolated
shower or storm in the afternoon, but probabilities are low
(~10%) so leaving the dry forecast as is for the time being. By
Sunday the upper trough to our south is forecast to move out of
the area while ridging builds behind it, leaving the day dry
with continued warmer than average temps.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Rain chances return for mid to late week.
Upper ridging and surface high pressure remain over the area to
start the week, but weak troughing is forecast to move north of
the region as we transition to midweek. Most of the energy with
this trough is anticipated to stay north, resulting in likely
(>90% chance) of being dry through Tuesday. A stronger trough is
forecast to dig into the central CONUS by midweek, bringing
chances for rain back to the forecast area for the mid to late
week time period. Temperatures in the long term remain somewhat
in question as the ensemble spreads are still quite large,
indicating higher uncertainty. This uncertainty is in part due
to the amount of cloud cover and rain we may get.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Isolated showers this afternoon. Early morning fog possible at
all terminals.
Winds will generally be light and variable today. A few
isolated showers will continue through the afternoon,
diminishing this evening. Although coverage may be slightly
higher than yesterday the chance of any impacts to aviation is
low. As we remain in a persistent synoptic pattern, guidance
continues to indicate the potential for visibility restrictions
once again tonight. Given the restrictions observed the previous
night, and very similar conditions expected tonight, we have
maintained at least a brief period of MVFR restrictions at all
sites early Saturday morning. AGS and OGB are the most likely
sites to drop into IFR/LIFR categories. Light winds expected
again Saturday generally out of the NE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A relatively dry air mass will hinder
widespread rainfall and restrictions through early next week.
However short periods of early morning fog/stratus remains
possible at AGS and OGB through the weekend. Towards the end of
the extended, moisture increases which will lead to increasing
chances for rain and widespread restrictions.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion