Shell Beach, California Weather Forecast Discussion

091
FXUS66 KLOX 302016
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
116 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...30/115 PM.
A series of weak disturbances will keep a persistent night through
morning low clouds pattern going across the coasts and lower vlys
into early next week. Otherwise, skies will be clear to partly
cloudy. Afternoon high temperatures will continue to run below
normal through the period.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...30/112 PM.
There were a few stratocu across the region early this afternoon,
otherwise mostly sunny skies prevailed with little change
expected thru the rest of the day. Breezy to locally gusty S to W
onshore winds will prevail across the region thru the afternoon.
Temps are forecast to be about 3-8 deg below normal across the
region. Highs will range from the 60s at the beaches to lower to
mid 70s over the inland coast, and from the mid 70s to around 80
for the vlys to lower mtns and deserts.
A broad WSW flow aloft will prevail tonight and Wed, with H5
heights in the 582-585 dam range. An upper level trof will move
into the E Pac Wed night and Thu, with the upper level flow
turning SW and H5 heights lowering to 579-583 dam Thu afternoon.
The upper level trof will become rather sharp as it moves E to
the CA Coast Thu night, then push into the area on Fri, with H5
heights over SW CA lowering to 571-579 dam from N-S. A broad W-NW
flow aloft will prevail on Fri.
Varying amounts of marine layer clouds will prevail mainly night
and morning hours over the coast and vlys thru Thu. Plenty of low
level moisture should prevail across the forecast area Thu night
into Fri with partly to mostly cloudy skies at times. Otherwise
clear to partly cloudy skies with dry weather is expected across
the forecast area thru Fri.
Breezy to gusty SW to NW winds can be expected each afternoon and
evening, except becoming more NW to N on Fri in association with
the upper level trof. Winds could become strong and gusty across
the I-5 Corridor into the Antelope Vly, as well as along the
Central Coast and over southern SBA County. Generally weak to
locally moderate sundowner winds are also expected across the
western Santa Ynez Mtns and western portions of the SBA County S
coast each evening.
Temps are expected to be several deg below normal thru Thu, then
become even cooler to around 5-10 deg below normal Fri. Highs over
the inland coast, vlys and lower mtns should be in the 70s to mid
80s Wed and Thu, then lower to mostly 70s Fri, except lower 80s
in the warmest vlys.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...30/114 PM.
Extended models in generally good agreement, especially the mean
ensembles. A broad upper level trof will prevail over srn CA on
Sat and Sun, then an upper level low is expected to move into nrn
CA on Mon then into NV on Tue, while a broad but dry cyclonic
flow aloft persists over SW CA.
Varying amounts of night and morning low clouds and some fog can
be expected over the coast and vlys Sat thru Tue, otherwise clear
to partly cloudy skies should prevail thru the period. Gusty NW to
N winds are expected Fri night into early Sat, with winds
probably around Advisory levels over srn SBA County and possibly
over the I-5 Corridor. Otherwise, periods of weaker northerly
winds can be expected especially night and morning hours. Temps
should run about 2-7 deg below normal overall Sat and Sun, then
drop to about 5-10 deg below seasonal norms Mon and Tue.
&&
.AVIATION...30/1731Z.
At 1648Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 5700 feet deep with an
inversion up to 5500 feet with a maximum temperature of 14 C.
High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Mostly MVFR to VFR cigs
are expected tonight, although there is a 30% chance for IFR cigs
at KPRB, KSBP, and KSMX and a 15% chance at KBUR and KVNY.
Flight cat changes may be off +/- 3 hours, with lowest certainty
south of Point Conception.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR to VFR cigs may bounce
between SCT and BKN through this afternoon, then more uniform MVFR
cigs may arrive as early as 05Z or as late as 11Z. Minimum cig
height may be as low as OVC012, but high confidence in MVFR being
minimum flight cat. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Flight cat changes may be off
+/- 3 hours. 15% chance for OVC007-010 cigs 10Z-16Z.
&&
.MARINE...30/105 PM.
Moderate confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and
choppy seas across the Santa Barbara Channel in the evening
tonight and Wednesday, with sub advisory conditions elsewhere.
High confidence in winds increasing to SCA levels across the
entire coastal waters Thursday through the weekend, except for the
inner waters adjacent to the Los Angeles and Orange County
coasts. The strongest winds are likely Friday afternoon and
evening. There is a 20% chance for Gale Force winds near Point
Conception and into the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel.
Through Wednesday, a southerly swell of 3 to 4 feet will impact
the coastal waters and may produce issues for exposed south facing
harbors. Wednesday night through Saturday, a northwest swell will
build, with seas peaking around 10 feet for the outer waters and
nearshore waters along the Central Coast. Seas will peak around 4
to 6 feet for the southern inner waters, highest in the Santa
Barbara Channel.
&&
.BEACHES...30/105 PM.
A moderately long period southerly swell will last into
Wednesday, generated by Hurricane Narda. Hazardous rip currents
and elevated surf are expected to continue for south acing
beaches, especially across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, as
well as Avila Beach and Port San Luis for the Central Coast.
Additionally, particularly vulnerable south-facing beaches may see
shallow coastal flooding over normally dry beach areas. A Beach
Hazards Statement is in effect for the Central Coast, Ventura and
Los Angeles Counties.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late tonight for
      zones 87-354-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday morning
      for zones 340-346-362. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to
      midnight PDT tonight for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Sirard
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion