Shellman, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

366
FXUS62 KTAE 260046
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
846 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Showers and storms ongoing in SE Alabama and western FL Panhandle
counties should generally weaken over the next few hours as they
move eastward. Additional rainfall is forecast to develop offshore
overnight before moving inland in the predawn hours Friday.
Forecast is on track, no changes needed.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Isolated showers and thunderstorms gradually move east/ northeast
across the CWA for the rest of the day and into tonight as a cold
front approaches. There will be pockets of heavy rain associated
with these storms and strong wind gusts are possible today.
Background winds will be breezy and flow out of the southwest,
with values around 10kts this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The cold front slowly moves east across the CWA and continues to
bring showers and thunderstorms to the area. Maximum temperatures,
and heat indicies, begin to lower starting Friday with the
passage of this cold front. The front brings in lots of cloud
cover this weekend, preventing the temperature from rising; expect
to see highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s as a result.
QPF is generally around 0.5-1 inch across the CWA, with isolated
higher amounts up to 3 inches, mostly along the coast of the
Panhandle. There are minimal concerns for flooding with this
frontal system due to how dry the region has been the last several
weeks; the ground will be able to absorb most of the rainfall. In
fact, this rain will be beneficial to the drought. There is not
much of a concern for anything severe with this system, although
wind gusts of up to 40kts are possible on Friday. By Saturday
evening, The front will be exiting the CWA, and PoPs drop
significantly.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Cooler and drier air is expected in wake of the frontal system.
Northerly/northeasterly flow prevails and little to no rain is
expected through Wednesday. Minimal cloud cover is expected during
this period. As a result, temperatures slowly rise once again,
however, there is no concern for any high heat indicies. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s/ lower 90s, and
lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Another round of scattered to widespread showers and some
thunderstorms will begin to redevelop overnight and likely
overspread Florida terminals closer to sunrise. This next round
will move in from the west, likely reaching DHN and ECP during
the pre-dawn hours Friday, then spreading east toward ABY, TLH,
and eventually VLD after sunrise. Limited instability will limit
coverage of thunder, but there will be plenty of showers with
reduced visibility. Scattered areas of MVFR/IFR conditions are
possible. After sunrise MVFR/VFR conditions should slowly return
if low ceilings developed overnight. Depending on morning
convective trends, some additional redevelopment of showers and
storms is possible in the afternoon until the cold front moves
through sometime early on Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Southwesterly flow prevails ahead of the cold front, with a
gradual wind shift to northerly as the front passes. The front
brings showers and thunderstorms to the marine zones today and
tomorrow, so expect isolated cells with heavier rain, wind gusts,
lightning activity, and the possibility for some waterspouts. Post
-frontal, favorable boating conditions are expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The passage of the cold front today and into the weekend bring
widespread rain to the region on Friday, with drier conditions in
its wake. RH remains above minimum criteria after the frontal
passage. Mixing heights are lower today and tomorrow afternoon,
around 1k-2k feet, due to the front. Past that, mixing heights
rise back into the 6k range post frontal. Fair dispersions persist
in the afternoons. The front may bring gusty conditions today and
tomorrow, and transport winds remain low throughout the period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
While showers and storms over the next couple of days may produce
pockets of heavy rainfall, very dry antecedent conditions are
expected to inhibit any substantial flooding threat.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  84  69  86 /  50  90  50  30
Panama City   73  84  70  87 /  80  80  30  10
Dothan        70  82  66  86 /  70  70  10  10
Albany        71  83  68  86 /  60  80  40  20
Valdosta      71  87  68  86 /  30  80  60  40
Cross City    73  89  71  87 /  30  70  70  60
Apalachicola  73  83  71  85 /  60  90  50  30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ108.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion