Silver Creek, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

208
FXUS63 KMPX 140534
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Daily chances for scattered showers and storms begins tomorrow
  and continues for much of next week.
- July like temperatures through midweek, cooling back down
  towards normal low 70s next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
The stubborn low clouds that were present over western Minnesota
and portions of western Wisconsin through the early afternoon
have finally dissipated as of 2pm, with some scattered upper
level cloud cover across the region lingering through tonight
and into tomorrow with no active weather until later in the day
Sunday. Temperatures today are more typical of July and mid-
September with upper 70s to low 80s and dew points in the mid
60s, making for a warm but otherwise pleasant day with a slight
breeze up to around 10mph out of the southeast. Sunday looks to
be the hottest day of our warm stretch with highs in the upper
80s possibly approaching 90 for the counties along the Minnesota
River and the Twin Cities in southern Minnesota. This is
primarily driven by southerly flow and warm air advection in the
lower levels of the atmosphere east of a developing trough over
the eastern Rockies, with efficient mixing during daylight
hours promoting warmer temperatures to the surface. This lobe of
warm air advection will also result in forcing for vertical
ascent with chances for sporadic showers and thunderstorms,
favoring western Minnesota closer to the incoming trough. There
are still some significant differences in the placement and
strength of the nose of the low level jet, which mainly comes
into play later on Sunday into Monday, however there is deep
enough general WAA to continue to force showers into Monday.
The aforementioned trough is expected to occlude and move
northwards across the Dakotas by Monday afternoon with shower
chances pushing northwards towards northern Minnesota as the
warm air advection becomes neutral or even cold advection
despite continued low level southerly winds, due to cooling to
our south in portions of Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois driven by
potential convection and cloud cover. The forecast continues to
rely on some mesoscale features that have yet to be fully
resolved within guidance due to being a couple days out, thus
there is still some variability within not only the temperature
forecast but also precipitation chances through midweek. By
Wednesday, the upper level trough will push a weak surface low
and cold front across the area as a secondary push of CVA
accompanies it as the upper level trough pushes northwards
towards central Canada, resulting in a better chance for more
widespread showers and weak storms. Behind the cold front,
temperatures should begin cooling down with upper 70s on
Thursday down to the low 70s by the weekend as the upper level
pattern shifts towards weaker flow as the occluded upper level
low pushes through, with a weak surface response possibly
resulting in further sporadic showers and weak storms. We will
have to see how the early week shapes up before we have better
confidence on what comes after, as we are within the period
where we start to see stronger synoptic scale systems resulting
in more typical fall-like weather such as stronger non storm
related winds and more widespread rains. For now, enjoy the
warmth while we still have it, as we still have around 45- 50
minutes of daylight to lose by the end of the month.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Low clouds and patchy fog are expected to develop again
overnight across parts of central MN and western WI. Models are
in general agreement that IFR/LIFR cigs will develop in the
vicinity of AXN and STC around 10Z and linger through mid
morning. The other batch already established over central WI
will continue westward and reach EAU around 0930Z. Otherwise,
VFR conditions expected.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA pm. Wind S 5-10kts.
WED...MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Borghoff

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion