Silver Creek, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

109
FXUS63 KMPX 111916
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
216 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of patchy fog possible for west-central WI Friday
  morning.
- Temperatures will continue to warm through the weekend. Highs
  are forecast to climb into the upper 80s Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Much like yesterday, low stratus that was present at sunrise this
morning has been slow to clear away. Remaining cloud cover at the
time of writing is mainly located north of I-94, with the southern
edge slowly eroding due to daytime heating. Across southern and
western MN, it`s been a beautiful sunny day so far with temperatures
projected to warm well into the 70s. Areas under the stratus will
eventually see sun this afternoon and should warm into the 70s also,
albeit a few degrees cooler with the delayed heating. Lows tonight
will be warmer across western MN as a thermal ridge begins to arrive
for this weekend. Lows over western MN will only drop into the lower
60s while western WI will see mid to upper 50s. An isolated shower
or thunderstorm may also occur Friday morning over central MN at the
periphery of the thermal ridge and nose of the LLJ. But, CAMs
suggest that precipitation will be more likely well to our north.
Highs for Friday are forecast in the upper 70s to mid 80s as the
ridge continues to center over the Upper Midwest. A stray shower or
thunderstorm may also occur over western WI late Friday from the
WAA. The warmest days of the period continue to look like Saturday
and Sunday with highs well into the 80s with even some lower 90s
possible in southern MN. We won`t be close to breaking any record
temperatures but we still will be quite hot (about 10-15 degrees
above average for this time of year). Overnight lows during the
weekend should also be stuffy, only falling into the 60s.
Another chance for rain will work its way back into the forecast
over western/southern MN Sunday afternoon. A negatively-tilted upper-
level trough over the High Plains will begin to move east, reaching
the Central and Northern Plains later Sunday. Southerly flow and
moisture advection ahead of the trough should allow for scattered
showers and storms to develop over the eastern Dakotas and western
IA and MN Sunday afternoon. This activity will then push northeast
into the southern half of MN Sunday evening. While forecast models
do show a strong possibility for decent MUCAPE (1500-2500 J/kg)
throughout the warm sector, deep layer wind shear is rather weak at
under 25 knots. Thus, storms will likely be more "pulsey" in nature,
providing a lesser chance of severe weather. The longevity of
convection is also in question due to the glancing nature of the
trough; only providing large-scale lift for a smaller window of
time. Latest NBM PoPs highlight this uncertainty well with only 15-
30% values across the area Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Warm temperatures will continue into Monday and Tuesday as the
aforementioned trough lifts north into Canada, not allowing for a
cold frontal passage. Highs in the 80s with dry conditions are
probable to begin the work week. Chances for rain return mid to late
next week as models show a closed upper-level low slowly making its
way into the Central Plains. Differences exist in how models handle
this feature, i.e. its translation speed, strength, and exact path.
Regardless, it looks like we should have at least two days with
chances for rain the latter half of the week. NBM smears 30-50% PoPs
across the CWA Tuesday night through Thursday due to the forecast
uncertainty. Eventually, the upper low should pass east, dragging a
cold front with it, bringing temperatures back closer to normal
towards next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Mostly VFR conditions expected this period as the fog clears
and stratus deck quickly scatters out this afternoon. Some
diurnal cu may develop this afternoon, otherwise only mid-high
level clouds expected. Winds will generally be between 120 to
150 degrees around 10 kts. Vis impacts from fog are not expected
overnight, outside of locations closer to west-central WI.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR late. Wind S 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR early. Wind S 10-15G20 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...BED

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion