Simmonsville, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

190
FXUS64 KSHV 190507
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1207 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Showers and storms are expected to return from the north around
   daybreak, continuing southward through the daytime hours.
- The weekend looks to get off to a dry start with warmer
   temperatures returning.
- Next week looks to be more unsettled, with daily rainfall
   chances and more mild temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Guidance has struggled lately, and continues to show uncertainty
regarding the showers and storms expected overnight into the day
Friday. With considerable discrepancies between different models and
even between one run and the next hour`s, what is known at this
point is that showers and storms are expected to move into the
ArkLaTex from the north near daybreak, continuing south into the
morning hours. The degree to which these storms get organized
depends on your model of choice, but we are not ruling out the
possibility of some becoming strong to severe. Depending on forward
speed, training heavy rains may lead to flash flooding concerns.
These hazards look to be more likely for northern zones of the
region.
Meanwhile, areas of patchy fog will continue to be a possibility
overnight, while temperatures drop into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
The system of showers and storms looks poised to exit the region by
sundown Friday evening at the latest. Rainfall and associated cloud
cover through the day is expected to moderate high temperatures
slightly, ranging from the upper 80s north to middle 90s south.
After Friday`s rainfall comes to an end, the weekend looks to get
off to a dry and quiet start, as upper level ridging pushes eastward
out of Texas, hindering noteworthy rainfall chances and allowing
high temperatures in the low to mid 90s to maintain their hold on
the Four State Region. Weak disturbances in the upper level flow
look to kick up scattered chances for showers and storms north and
west late in the weekend, becoming more widespread into early next
week as a developing upper level trough and associated closed low
deepens and pushes southeastward over the Plains. As the pattern
remains unsettled, daily rainfall chances will continue to close out
this long term forecast period, with highs dropping from the 90s to
80s, and lows in the 60s and 70s throughout.
/26/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 933 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
For the 19/00z TAF period...Isolated convection has almost
diminished across the region. VFR conditions have returned
areawide, but models have some additional convection developing
overnight towards daybreak. This could give some brief reduced flight
conditions at KTXK/KTYR, and possibly KGGG/KSHV. This convection
should diminish by mid morning, but more convection is expected
during the afternoon hours at most of the TAF sites. /20/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Spotter activation is could be needed this late afternoon and
evening. Activity may continue to some extent overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  95  73  94 /   0   0   0  20
MLU  69  96  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
DEQ  65  90  66  89 /   0  10  10  30
TXK  69  95  71  94 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  65  94  68  93 /  10   0   0  20
TYR  68  92  69  90 /   0   0   0  30
GGG  67  92  68  92 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  68  94  69  92 /   0   0   0  30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...20

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion