Simms, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

154
FXUS65 KTFX 231705
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1105 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- It will warm up today through Thursday with windy days on
   Thursday and Friday.
- It will be cooler Friday through the weekend.
- It will be dry through Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
/Issued 831 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025/
Upper level ridging will bring above normal temperatures to all of
Southwest through North Central Montana through the daylight hours
today, with generally light south to west surface winds. The on-
going forecast is handling these conditions well and no updates
are needed this morning. - Moldan
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 831 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
Areas that received precipitation yesterday will have the potential
for patchy fog to form this morning. See the Forecast Confidence &
Scenarios section for details. Today an upper-level ridge moves over
North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will dry out
the area and allow temperatures to warm up to slightly above
seasonal averages. On Wednesday and Thursday the upper-level ridge
remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana which
will allow temperatures to warm up to well above seasonal averages
with dry weather. Thursday evening due to an upper-level trough that
begins to dip down from Canada it will be windy across North-central
Montana Thursday evening through Friday. On Friday the weak upper-
level trough remains in place over North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. This will bring temperatures back down closer
to seasonal averages with dry weather. On Friday it will be windy
across Central Montana. Saturday through Monday an upper-level ridge
builds back in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. This will allow temperatures to be warm with dry weather
each day Saturday through Monday. -IG
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
There is less than a 10% chance for fog to form in Southwestern
Montana. However due to there being light winds, clear skies, and
the recent precipitation, that probability is too low and a more
reasonable probability is around a 30% chance in the valleys of
Southwestern Montana. There is a 10 - 30% chance for temperatures of
90 degrees or greater on Wednesday across most of the plains of
North-central Montana. There is a 30 - 50% chance for wind gusts of
40 mph or greater along the plains adjacent to the Rocky Mountain
Front on Thursday and Friday. There is a 50 - 70% chance for wind
gusts of 40 mph or greater along the Rocky Mountain Front on
Thursday and Friday. There is a 10 - 30% chance for wind gusts of 40
mph or greater across the rest of North-central and Central Montana
on Friday. -IG
&&
.AVIATION...
23/18Z TAF Period
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals across Southwest,
Central, and North Central Montana through the 2318/2418 TAF
period. Mountain obscuration is not expected over the next 24
hours. - Moldan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  78  49  87  45 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  78  44  84  40 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  76  45  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  72  40  80  42 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  67  27  72  29 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  70  38  79  40 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  78  44  87  44 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  73  45  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion