334 FXUS62 KCAE 110044 AFDCAEArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 844 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the next seven days with dry conditions and near to above normal daytime temperatures.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Key message(s):
- None.
Surface high pressure in place over much of the the eastern CONUS. Deep layer dry air continues to move in from the west with a moisture gradient in place. Satellite derived PWAT estimates of a half inch in the western portion of the forecast area to around an inch in the east. Some low clouds continue just to the east of the forecast area and will likely build in overnight. Cooler temperatures in the west as a result in the mid to upper 50s to low to mid 60s in the eastern area.
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.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s):
- Surface ridging and calm weather expected through the end of the week.
Weak positively titled upper troughing continues to shift offshore, as a very strong surface high slides across eastern Canada. As a result, surface ridging will remain in place as northeasterly low level continues down lee of the Appalachians; northeasterly winds will weaken somewhat on Thursday before strengthening again Friday. While some airmass moderation will start to bump dew points and PWAT`s up, precip chances remain near zero through Friday but temps will rise to near average (in the mid- upper 80`s).
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key message(s):
- Warm and dry conditions expected into next week.
The overall synoptic pattern really will not change much over the next, at least in regards to its sensible weather impacts as a long wave quasi-omega block remains over the northern tier of the US. Surface ridging will continue to extend down lee of the Appalachians as the Canadian high sags southeastward over the weekend. With a relative lack of advection as the entire airmass in the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast steadily moderates and heights rise, temps will climb back above average over the weekend despite northeasterly flow. Moisture however will be limited in its return and precip chance remain near zero through the middle of next week.
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.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Ceiling restrictions possible at OGB and CAE/CUB early Thursday.
Deeper moisture remains along the coast with drier air to the west. Another round of stratus is expected to develop along the coast tonight and advance inland similar to the previous night. As the stratus deck moves into the Midlands we expect MVFR or IFR restrictions for at least a hew hours at OGB occurring between 10Z and 15Z. It`s less certain that the cloud deck will make it to the Columbia sites but given the model guidance for tonight and MVFR restrictions that occurred for about an hour the previous night we decided to introduce a brief period of MVFR restrictions. VFR conditions are expected to return around 15Z Thursday with continued NE flow around 5 to 10 kts through the afternoon. The air mass remains too dry for any showers.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...With limited moisture over the region through the weekend, rainfall chances and the chance for widespread restrictions are low. Brief, early morning visibility restrictions at the fog prone sites are possible Friday morning and over the weekend.
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.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None.
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NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion