Snapper Creek, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

194
FXUS62 KMFL 072242
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
642 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
South FL will see more convective activity today as less cloud
cover this morning allowed for temps to reach the lower 90s early
this afternoon. The added instability combined with the decaying
frontal boundary will provide the ingredients with numerous
thunderstorms across the area. ACARS soundings show PWAT values
have increased to 2.1-2.2 inches across the area. With the deep
moisture in place and weak steering flows, slow moving
thunderstorms will present a urban and poor drainage flooding
risk through early this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Sfc analyses and model data shows the remnants of a former front
lingering over S Florida, while a long stationary frontal boundary
stretches from S TX through N FL and the Carolinas, with an
attendant Low lingering around the GA/FL state line. Meanwhile, a
short wave over the E Gulf may contribute additional instability
across the area today, which combined with the relatively weak
S/SW flow at the sfc, should bring the highest chances of showers
and thunderstorms over the eastern half of SoFlo this afternoon.
Abundant moisture remains trapped south of the aforementioned
boundaries, with PWATs from MFL upper air and model soundings
keeping 2.1-2.5" in place for the next several days. Therefore,
POps will remain high each day, mainly in the 75 to 85 percent
range. Expect sea breeze boundaries to again drive the deepest
convection, with the Gulf breeze initiating thunderstorm activity
early in the afternoon over the Gulf coast and shifting into east
coast areas for the late/early evening hours. Latest high-res
solutions suggest isolated 3" or higher possible, for which WPC
latest outlook keeps all of SoFlo under a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4). It also mentions the potential
for isolated risk of flash flooding favoring the eastern half of
SoFlo, especially with slow- moving or stationary thunderstorms
over urban areas.
Despite the widespread cloud cover expected for the afternoon hours,
daytime heating during the morning hours should be enough to again
drive max temps into the upper 80s over northern areas, and low-
mid 90s elsewhere.
Very similar weather pattern continues on Monday, as the remnant
boundary over C FL dissipates and, and high pressure establishing
over the E CONUS pushes the second front pushes further south and
into C FL. This will keep the abundant moisture in place as the
daytime heating/sea breeze cycle repeats.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Model guidance keeps a lingering front around C FL through at least
Thursday, with above normal moisture remaining in place across the
area. Ensemble guidance also suggest a potential low developing
mainly around the northern portions of the peninsula, although
uncertainty still remains regarding the details of this feature.
Nevertheless, the overall wet pattern continues through much of
the long term, but with the risk for flooding decreasing each day
as model PWATs show values dropping to near normals by Wed. Still,
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to return each
afternoon with highest POPs remaining in the 70-75 percent range.
Sea breezes will again be the main drivers of deeper convection
during the afternoon hours, but outflow boundary collisions will
play a significant role on storm initiation
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Scattered showers for several more hours and then mostly dry
conditions overnight with light and variable winds through Monday
morning. Winds become SE during the afternoon across the east
coast metro and westerly at APF. SCT thunderstorms during the
afternoon and early evening on Monday may result in brief flight
restrictions and erratic winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A light to moderate souths-southwesterly wind continues remain in
place across most of the local waters during the next couple of
days, becoming generally light and variable by mid week.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each day through the forecast period with rough seas and gusty
winds briefly accompanying thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  90  77  89 /  50  80  60  70
West Kendall     76  90  76  89 /  50  80  60  70
Opa-Locka        77  91  76  91 /  60  80  60  70
Homestead        76  89  76  89 /  50  80  60  60
Fort Lauderdale  77  90  76  89 /  60  80  60  70
N Ft Lauderdale  77  91  77  90 /  60  80  70  70
Pembroke Pines   77  92  76  91 /  60  80  60  70
West Palm Beach  76  90  76  89 /  70  90  70  80
Boca Raton       76  91  76  91 /  70  90  70  80
Naples           78  89  76  89 /  50  80  60  70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CMF

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion