Snowshoe, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

854
FXUS61 KRLX 230439
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1239 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms continue through the work week as
multiple disturbances affect the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1010 PM Monday...
MCS has progressed across much of the CWA this evening,
gradually weakening a bit as it has done so, but still with
decent structure even as it enters the eastern portion of the
CWA at this time. Wind gusts of 35-50+ mph have been observed as
it has crossed the forecast area. Expect this trend to continue
over the next hour or so as it exits the CWA, with the
potential for isolated instances of wind damage remaining.
Following this, an additional wave of ISOLD/SCT showers and a
few storms moves in for the overnight amid warm overnight
temperatures (low/mid 60s lowlands; upper 50s and low 60s
mountains). Have significantly increased PoPs across the far
north and east to better align with the movement of the MCS this
evening. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 520 PM Monday...
Isolated to scattered (garden variety) showers/storms have
developed this afternoon across the CWA amid modest buoyancy and
weak forcing. Further west, activity has blossomed significantly
over the last hour or two in advance of a shortwave trough amid
increased mid-level flow of ~35-45kts per KILN and KLVX VAD
Wind Profiles. This activity should continue to progressively
shift eastward, moving into the western portion of the CWA
within the next hour or two. The primary threat continues to be
strong to damaging wind gusts, along with heavy downpours.
Given current translational velocity of ~35-45kts, wind gusts
of 40-50 mph are currently common along this line, with
localized gusts up to 60 mph or slightly higher given any
bowing features / line surges. The current expectation is for
this activity to hold together into at least the western portion
of the CWA, and then gradually weaken further east given some
remnant cold pools from earlier activity combined with loss of
daytime heating. Given some turning with height, a brief spinup
is not out of the question. Additionally, a highly localized
high water issue or two remains possible given any training of
storms. Have modified PoPs over the next few hours to represent
the latest trends.
As of 125 PM Monday...
The near term period will continue to be active, with a moist
southwesterly flow in place, and multiple waves traversing the
region, helping to kick off rounds of showers and storms. Bulk of
activity still looks to be in the afternoon and evening hours, and
across SE OH, NE KY and the Mid-Ohio Valley region, however,
models are indicating another wave crossing in the
overnight Monday/early morning hours on Tuesday for another
round of activity. Storms will contain brief heavy downpours as
PW values surge well above seasonal norms. Isolated strong to
severe storms will also be possible on Monday, with ample
instability and shear on the order of 30-40 kts. Damaging winds
will be the primary hazard with any convection on Monday.
Tuesday will continue to be active across the area as additional
shortwaves continue to traverse the area. An isolated strong to
severe storm will also be possible on Tuesday, although chances
look to be somewhat low at this point.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 AM Tuesday...
An upper level low to our northwest will continue to push
moisture and a frontal boundary into the area for Wednesday and
Wednesday night. This will once again lead to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. The front could act as a focusing mechanism
for precipitation and with some areas already receiving
rainfall and more expected today, there is some concern for
flash flooding.
Models vary on where the cold front will stall Wednesday night
into Thursday, but our region seems to be a prime target.
The upper level low to our northwest will eventually evolve
into a deep trough and start pushing eastward. This will push
the cold front further eastward and east of our area Thursday
or Thursday night.
The upper trough will push through the area on Friday, allowing
for some showers behind the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Tuesday...
Models show that as the upper trough pulls away from the region,
it leaves behind a cut off low over the southeast United States.
Models vary on how far south of us the low is, with the Canadian
being furtherest north and possibly affecting southern portions
of our region. Some other models also leave some moisture over
our mountains, which could lead to some showers. This leads to a
lower confidence in the forecast for the weekend, especially
for the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 850 PM Monday...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to progress eastward
across the CWA. A gust front on the leading edge of this
activity is producing wind gusts of ~30-40kts, having just
moved through CRW/PKB, but should continue to gradually weaken
as it progresses further east. Outside of this, MVFR and brief
IFR VSBY restrictions are possible within the rain. An
additional round of SCT showers and ISOLD thunderstorms is
possible later tonight, moving in from the west, and bringing
the potential for additional brief MVFR VSBY restrictions.
Otherwise, CIGs will gradually lower throughout the night, with
MVFR/IFR across much of the area by dawn. A bit of patchy fog
cannot be ruled out.
The chance for ISOLD/SCT showers/storms continues on
Tuesday, particularly southeast of the Ohio River, with some
brief MVFR VSBY restrictions possible. CIGs will gradually
rise/scatter into VFR by late in the day for most of the
forecast area.
Wind gusts of ~30-40kts remain possible over the next hour or
two across the eastern CWA, potentially impacting CKB/EKN.
Otherwise, light southerly flow is expected tonight, with light
southwest flow on Tuesday, with occasional breezes of 15 or so
kts at times.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/intensity of restrictions from rain
and stratus may vary from the forecast. CIGs at CKB/CRW/EKN
could be slightly higher than currently anticipated late tonight
into Tuesday morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                                             TUE 09/23/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    M    L    L    L    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    L    H    M    M    M    M    H    M
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions are possible with heavier
showers or thunderstorms throughout the work week. IFR is also
possible at night with low stratus and/or fog.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/GW
NEAR TERM...SL/GW
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...GW

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion