Spring Hills, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

189
FXUS62 KTBW 060714
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
314 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
In the upper levels, a broad trough/closed low centered north of the
Great Lakes will slowly progress through eastern Canada this weekend
through early next week as a series of shortwaves rotate through the
midwest and northeastern US. At the surface, a weak trough axis is
extending from the western Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula and
ending with a weak surface low over the eastern Gulf. This pattern
is pumping deep moisture into the southern and central portions
of the forecast area today under southerly and southeasterly flow,
resulting in scattered to widespread thunderstorms again today.
On Sunday, the surface flow will become weak and rather variable,
although deep moisture along the surface trough will continue to
result in scattered to widespread thunderstorms.
By Monday, the Gulf surface low will begin to dissipate as a weak
frontal boundary pushes south into Florida and the eastern Gulf and
replaces the surface trough axis, which really won`t change the
overall pattern that much. As the frontal boundary stalls out across
central Florida through the rest of the week, deep moisture will
continue to result in scattered to widespread thunderstorms each
day next week, with easterly flow setting up a pattern of mainly
afternoon to early evening thunderstorm timing.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Scattered showers are starting to develop and shift onshore and
into the vicinity of southwest Florida area terminals early this
morning, which are expected to continue off and on through mid
morning. Numerous showers and storms will then develop during the
afternoon and early evening, and could threaten all area terminals
beginning around 18-20z. Rain will clear out by around 00-03z
this evening, allowing VFR conditions to return.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A weak boundary will remain stalled across the waters through the
weekend and then will be reinforced from the north next week,
with deep moisture along and south of this boundary continuing to
bring scattered to numerous thunderstorms each day. Mainly east
and southeast winds today will turn to southwesterly in the
afternoon, then after light and variable winds on Sunday, east
and southeast flow will return Monday through Wednesday of next
week. Wind speeds will generally remain less than headline
criteria, although daily thunderstorms will produce locally higher
winds and rough seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Deep moisture holding over the area will bring scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to the area each day this weekend. No humidity
concerns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  91  77 /  70  40  60  30
FMY  90  77  89  75 /  80  50  70  40
GIF  92  75  92  75 /  80  40  70  30
SRQ  90  77  89  75 /  70  40  60  30
BKV  92  72  91  71 /  70  40  60  30
SPG  88  77  88  76 /  70  40  50  30
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
Fleming

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion