Spring Lake Park, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

581
FXUS63 KMPX 250613
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
113 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog likely late tonight through Thursday morning.
  Isolated pockets of dense fog are possible.
- Mild temperatures and dry conditions to persist through at
  least the first half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Visible satellite reveals mostly sunny skies across much of the
region. The greatest impact to sky cover can be found across far
SE MN/portions of W WI, where lingering strato-cu (following
morning dense fog) has been slow to clear. In addition,
scattered Cu has developed across western MN, where morning fog
was also present. Afternoon highs are on track to reach the mid
to upper 70s across much of south central MN. Temperatures are
running slightly cooler across western WI due to the persistence
of cloud cover this morning. Skies will clear heading into this
evening with light and variable winds overnight. The influence
of lake fog should be less pronounced tonight, though will
likely see patchy fog develop across eastern MN/western WI and
it`s possible that visibility may dip below 1 mile in spots. Fog
is forecast to mix out by 14/15z and we`ll be left with a
gorgeous Thursday characterized by sunny skies and highs in the
low 80s. Little change in the airmass by Friday, so expect
similar conditions with high temperatures running ~10+ degrees
above normal. Of note, we did give the high temperatures a
little bit of a boost by blending in NBM90th percentile highs
given the persistence of a pattern that has produced
overachievement above the operational NBM over the past few
days.
A shortwave is forecast to slide across southern Canada Friday
into Saturday, sending a cold front through our portion of the
Upper Midwest. Model consensus keeps the best forcing for rain
chances to the north of the International Border. Chances for
precipitation with this wave were already very slim and now are
essentially zero, as no members of the Grand Ensemble
(GEFS/EPS/GEPS) produce precipitation across our forecast area.
With that in mind, the main story heading into the weekend will
continue to be the anomalous late September warmth. The
shortwave is progged to lift north towards Hudson Bay Saturday
into Sunday. Large scale ridging will build northward in
response, which opens the door for an 8-10C 850mb temperature
anomaly to build Sunday into Monday. Latest forecast features
highs in the low to mid 80s both days, though as I mentioned
yesterday this type of setup supports potential overachievement
by a few degrees. Should that be the case, we could be looking
at widespread highs in the mid 80s, which is more than 15
degrees above normal for late September.
For next week, the upper-air pattern is forecast to take on a
meridional look that features longwave troughing in the west and
ridging over the eastern CONUS. This places our portion of the
country in a zone of persistent southwesterly flow which aims to
keep the mild air flowing northward to open October.
Conceptually, there should be some low-level jet activity
setting up across the central CONUS for the middle to end of
next week which may yield the return of precipitation chances.
That being said, this scenario is typically not handled well by
the global guidance so the continuation of a zero PoP forecast
through at least the middle of next week is appropriate. By late
next week/the weekend of 10/4-10/5, long term guidance shows
the return of a more active upper- level pattern that may bring
better rain chances to the region. For now, the theme is more
dry and mild Fall weather.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Aside from areas of fog, some of which may be dense, east of
I-35 which would very likely impact the WI TAF sites, VFR
conditions are expected. Have already seen bouncing of
conditions at RNH and EAU, thus have kept the most degraded
conditions at those two sites but indication are that such
degradations will be more intermittent rather than sustained,
hence the TEMPO usage rather than prevailing. Beyond sunrise,
only mid-lvl fair wx cumulus clouds are expected for the
Thursday daytime hours, which clearing again Thursday night.
Patchy fog again possible for Friday morning, but confidence is
lower than previous mornings.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts becoming NW.
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...JPC

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion