Spur, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

862
FXUS64 KLUB 031753
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1253 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1252 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue through the
   weekend.
- A pattern change is possible during the early to middle portion
   of next week which may provide a brief period of cooler
   weather and increased rain chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Quiet and warm weather will dominate tonight and Saturday as upper
ridging remains overhead. Surface lee troughing will keep surface
winds out of the south to southeast tonight. The upper low currently
over northern California and Nevada will progress eastward across
the Rockies tonight before transitioning to a progressive open wave
over Colorado and Wyoming late Saturday morning. This will allow the
surface pressure gradient across the foothills to tighten creating
breezy conditions Saturday afternoon. The upper low/trough will help
to partially erode the overhead ridge Saturday which will help to
keep afternoon highs cooler than what is expected today by a few
degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Upper flow will become southwesterly early Sunday into late Monday
as the upper trough over the western CONUS become positively tilted
and an upper high builds across the eastern CONUS. A cold front will
push southward across the Northern and Central Plains early Monday.
The front is progged to move into the northern Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles before stalling. Models eventually push the front into
the FA by late Monday/early Tuesday as upper flow transitions to
more zonal in nature. Isolated to scattered convection will be
possible along the front but will have minimal upper level
assistance. Models then begin to build upper ridging over the region
once again by late week. Models differ an amplification and location
of the upper ridge/high, the ECMWF keeping the center of the upper
high just to our east while the GFS keeps the ridge axis to our west
and amplifies the ridge northward into Canada. This will have an
impact on any potential precip chances and temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...51

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion