Stanley, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

142
FXUS65 KPUB 031122
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
522 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy conditions with well above normal temperatures today,
  which will support elevated fire conditions across the far
  southeast plains.
- Breezy to windy conditions Saturday with a few strong storms
  possible ahead of passing weather system across the Rockies.
- Cooler and unsettled weather pattern in store for the late
  weekend into the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Relatively quiet across the area this morning, with clear skies in
place. Winds have been variable this morning, occasionally gusting
in spots. This has supported temperatures either holding steady, or
even rising in some locations. While this has occurred, anticipate
winds to diminish and with these clear skies in place, still expect
temps to steadily fall this morning. Still don`t anticipate any
widespread frost across the San Luis Valley this morning, however,
have maintained patchy frost in the forecast.
Upper ridge will shift east today, as a highly amplified trough/low
steadily approaches from the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow will
increase out ahead of this system, providing slight increases in
moisture across the Continental divide and strengthening surface
winds. For much of today, the highest moisture looks to stay just to
the west, while drier conditions remain for much of south central
and southeast Colorado. This will likely keep most of any precip
development over western Colorado today. Elsewhere, air mass will
warm in this setup and help provide the warmest day of the week.
With sunny to partly cloudy skies and with 700mb temps approaching
15C, should see the highest temps over the plains rise well into the
80s and 90s. Did raise temperatures a degree or two today, and think
temperatures will be close to reaching record values. Record high
temperatures for today are 79F at ALS in 2024, 87F at COS in 1935,
and 94F at PUB in 2018.
Keeping a close eye on the fire weather concerns today, especially
over the far southeast plains where stronger winds and gusts along
with critical RH values will reside. At this time, don`t think
widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely today and
have not issued any Red Flag Warnings at this time. So will continue
to message the elevated fire conditions likely later this afternoon.
The upper trough/low will approach later tonight and with moisture
on the increase, should see coverage of showers and thunderstorms
increase over the Continental Divide. Instability will be on the
weaker side, and think coverage and intensity of thunderstorms will
be low tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Latest model data remains on track with an upper low and broad upper
trough across the Great Basin early Saturday, lifting out across the
Central Rockies with 100kt jet core translating across south central
and southeast Colorado through the afternoon into the early evening.
This will keep gusty south to southwest winds of 20 to 40 mph across
the area through the afternoon, with winds becoming more westerly but
remaining gusty behind the system`s standup front. Latest models are
a tad slower with system translating across the region, and with the
expected mixing ahead of the system, will see temperatures quickly
warm into the 70s and 80s across the plains, with temperatures mainly
in the 50s and 60s across the higher terrain early Saturday. Will see
temperatures cooling from west to east as the system passes through
the day. Increasing moisture and uvv ahead of the system will bring
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms to areas over and near
the higher terrain through the day Saturday, with latest higher res
models indicating the potential for a few stronger storms with a broken
line of convection translating across the eastern mountains and out
across the I-25 Corridor into the southeast plains through the late
afternoon and evening. The latest SPC Day2 Outlook has a marginal risk
across northeastern Colorado with a lack of instability the limiting
factor across southeastern Colorado. However, with the amount of
available shear, we can`t rule out a few strong to marginally severe
storms producing gusty outflow winds and small hail across southeast
Colorado Saturday afternoon and evening. As for snowfall, some light
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will be possible generally above 10,000
feet, greatest across the higher peaks along the Continental Divide.
Saturday night-Sunday night...Models remain consistent with cooler and
much drier air filtering into the region within moderate west to southwest
flow aloft behind the system translating into the Upper Midwest through
the day Sunday. Overnight lows cool into the 40s across the plains, with
20s and 30s expected across the higher terrain. With that said, we have
issued a Freeze Watch for the San Luis Valley from 3 am to 9 am Sunday.
Passing system sends a backdoor front across the eastern Colorado through
the day, with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 80s across
southeast Colorado on Sunday, with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s across
the higher terrain. Low level moisture increasing within east to southeast
low level flow will bring the potential for a low clouds across the plains
Sunday night, with a few possible showers, especially across the Pikes
Peak region.
Monday-Friday...A cool and unsettled weather pattern remains in the offing
for the early and middle portion of next week, as varying amounts of
available moisture and occasional disturbances translate through the west
to southwest flow aloft, keeping chances of precipitation and temperatures
generally below seasonal levels. By the end of next week, upper level
ridging builds back across the region, with temperatures warming back to
around seasonal levels. However, models continue to differ on the timing
and location of possible subtropical moisture moving back into the Rockies.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions and dry weather will continue across the TAF
sites this forecast period. Showers and thunderstorms likely
over the Continental Divide later today through the overnight
hours, with occasional VFR ceilings becoming more likely at
ALS. Will see the lighter winds in place increase later today,
especially at ALS, where southwest winds will gust to the lower
20 kt range. For COS and PUB, anticipate diurnal trends will
stay in place with a south to southeast wind at COS and an east
southeast wind at PUB.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
for COZ069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion