Stetson University, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

195
FXUS62 KMLB 110701
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
301 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
- Wet and unsettled conditions persist through at least today,
  with the option of continuing southward (esp. Okeechobee &
  Treasure Coast) Friday and Saturday as deep moisture is slow to
  scour out. A low threat for locally heavy rainfall and mostly
  minor flooding will continue through the end of the week.
- A HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents
  will be present at ALL central FL Atlc beaches through at least
  Friday.
- Temperatures are forecast to be near to slightly below normal
  into this weekend, with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Current-Tonight...Training rainbands early this morning across south-
central Brevard County responsible for a few inches (locally
higher) of rainfall and prompting multiple Flood Advisories. Will
need to monitor for any other potential training activity along
the coast this morning, even down through the Treasure Coast. The
weak frontal boundary will continue to progress very slowly
southward across the Treasure Coast today and is forecast to move
south of Martin County by this evening. There will be a tight
moisture gradient across central FL today with forecast PWATs
falling to 1.60-1.80" near Orlando northward and 1.90- 2.40"
southward toward Lake Okee. The recent HRRR model runs aren`t very
keen on precip today, but will still go with 20-30pct I-4
northward and 50-70pct southward. A weak shortwave trough will
traverse late today/evening and may enhance ongoing convection.
Steering flow remains very light/variable. May again have to
monitor for evening/overnight convection producing training echoes
along portions of the south Brevard/Treasure coasts.
Locally heavy rainfall remains the primary threat, esp for areas
that see multiple rounds and for those locales that have already
seen multiple days of torrential downpours. This threat will be
greatest south of Orlando. Accumulations of 2-4" (ISOLD higher)
could lead to minor/nuisance flooding concerns. This will also be
problematic for streams/rivers as they approach and possibly exceed
bankfull. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall continues south
of the Cape, though a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall will
creep northward from south FL into southern Okeechobee County and
for portions of the Treasure Coast. Additional threats from the
strongest storms include occasional to frequent lightning strikes
and gusty winds up to around 45 mph.
Highs will remain near to slightly below normal, mostly in the M-
U80s. Peak heat indices generally in the 90s, but may approach 100F
southward toward Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. N/NE wind
component will be observed north of the boundary and could be breezy
at times due to local sea breeze enhancement.
A persistent northeast swell will continue to promote numerous,
strong, life-threatening rip currents at area beaches from Volusia
County through Martin County. Entering the surf is strongly
discouraged!
Fri-Thu...Medium range models continue to show an upper trough
aligned across the Eastern Seaboard and north FL sliding southward
across the FL peninsula thru Sat/Sat night. The region will
remain in a "troughy" mid-level pattern through at least early
next week. This will act to push drier air down the peninsula
through the remainder of the extended. For PoPs on Fri, we
continue to carry 20-40pct along and north of I-4, with 50-60pct
southward toward Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Sat PoPs
have come in a little higher at 40-50pct (up to 60pct for St.
Lucie/Martin Counties), and generally 20-40pct thru much of the
rest of the extended, with some 50pct PoPs blended in on occasion.
Even with the weak frontal boundary south of our area, a tight
moisture gradient continues into Fri/Sat. There will still be a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall areawide on Fri, with the
Marginal scaled back to Cape southward on Sat. The Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall on Fri/Sat includes Martin County southward.
Afternoon highs consistent in the M-U80s with lows in the L-M70s,
though could see some U60s across normally cooler rural locations
over the interior. Generally an onshore wind component through the
weekend and into next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Today-Tonight...The frontal boundary will continue to press
slowly southward across the Treasure Coast waters today, then
points further south of our local coastal waters later tonight.
There will still be periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, with
greatest coverage generally Cape southward. Seas typically 3-5 ft,
but models still lagging behind by about 1 ft for wave heights
(via local buoys) behind the front. Will make final decision just
ahead of CWF issuance, but may have to entertain 5-6 ft
seas/Cautionary Statements for initial period across the offshore
Volusia/Brevard waters.
Fri-Mon...The boundary will finally push into south FL and remain
south of the local waters thru the remainder of the extended,
though moisture is slow to scour out - esp south of the Cape.
Wind directional component will continue to be mainly NNE/NE thru
the period. Wind speeds begin to increase, esp north of the Cape
Fri afternoon thru the weekend (decrease on Mon), approaching
Cautionary levels here (15-20 kts) at times, and flirting with
Advisory (20 kts) conditions in the Volusia waters Saturday. Seas
3-5 ft but will approach 6-7 ft, again, Fri overnight into Sun
(offshore & possibly near shore Volusia waters) before subsiding
again Sun overnight into Mon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Onshore moving showers and isolated storms will continue near to
south of KMLB through early this morning, with MVFR cigs forecast
to linger at KMLB and perhaps spread southward through daybreak.
Frontal boundary stalls across Okeechobee County/Treasure Coast
region today. This will lead to a tight moisture gradient with
drier air and lower rain chances (20-30%) near to north of KMCO.
South of KMCO scattered to numerous showers and storms are
forecast through the afternoon/evening, with rain chances
increasing up to 50-60% near to south of KMLB. For now have
limited tempo TSRA groups with MVFR impacts to KVRB-KSUA from
19-22Z where greatest rain chances will exist. Elsewhere, have
mostly kept any mention of showers/storms to VCSH/VCTS.
Winds will be N/NE up to 5-8 knots near to north of the front
through early this morning, and then becoming NE 10-15 knots this
afternoon, with some higher gusts up to 18-20 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  74  85  74 /  30  30  50  40
MCO  89  74  87  72 /  30  20  50  20
MLB  86  76  87  74 /  50  50  60  40
VRB  88  74  87  74 /  70  50  60  40
LEE  89  72  87  71 /  20  10  30  10
SFB  87  73  87  72 /  30  30  50  20
ORL  88  74  87  73 /  30  20  50  20
FPR  88  74  87  72 /  70  50  60  40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Weitlich

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