Stetsonville, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

482
FXUS61 KBGM 260537
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
137 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers today with northwest flow and upper level
disturbance overhead. High pressure returns this weekend with
partly to mostly sunny conditions. Next week, high pressure will
settle overhead with dry and warm conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low stratus and fog will persist through the early morning and
start to lift after sunrise. A dense fog advisory has been
issued for NE PA and portions of Central NY sue to visibility
dropping below 1/4 mile in some spots. It will be drier today,
however NW flow and upper trough over the area will steep keep
clouds and isolated showers around. Tomorrow will warm back up
with mostly sunny skies with high pressure back in place. Fog
has been added to much of the area for Friday night with strong
high pressure in place and clear skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains in place Saturday, but with another
trough digging into the Great Lakes region and into the SE US,
flow aloft becomes southerly with warmer air advecting in. Highs
will be back above average this weekend. Trends Saturday night
into Sunday continue to have a low moving up the east coast
closer to the Mid Atlantic coast. Chances of precipitation have
been increased for the Poconos into the Southern Catskills just
in case trends continue to push the low west. NE PA will have
the best chance to see measurable rainfall Saturday night with
chances significantly decreasing further north. High pressure
moves back in on Sunday with dry and warm conditions once again.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Next week, model trends have been towards a potential tropical
system making landfall somewhere in the SE. Over our area,
strong high pressure will likely keep any precipitation
associated with the tropical system well to the south. The cool
dry air under the strong high pressure, will likely increase the
frost/freeze risk, especially Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low ceilings and areas of fog are expected to be in place
through this morning along with an isolated lake effect showers.
Confidence in IFR or lower restrictions is highest at AVP, BGM,
ELM and ITH. While ceilings are expected to gradually improve
tomorrow, west to northwest winds off the Great Lakes are
expected to keep some lingering ceiling restrictions into the
early afternoon hours. VFR conditions are expected to return to
all terminals by the end of the TAF period. Valley fog will be
possible again late Friday night into early Saturday morning.
Outlook...
Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. IFR valley fog will be
possible in the early morning hours.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-072.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ024-044-
     045-055-056.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...AJG/MPK
LONG TERM...AJG/MPK
AVIATION...DK/ES/MPK

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion