Stumpy Point, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

002
FXUS62 KMHX 150724
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
324 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving coastal low is forecast to move slowly north and
then northwest towards ENC today, then move inland late tonight
or Tuesday. The low will then lift north and weaken mid-week.
Late in the week, a cold front will move through, with another
coastal low possibly developing offshore.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Monday...
Key Messages
- Coastal low to impact ENC with gusty winds, heavy rain,
   strong thunderstorms, and coastal impacts
Early this morning, a coastal low was clearly evident on
satellite imagery about 200 miles SE of Cape Lookout. This low
is forecast to move slowly N or NNW over the next 24-36 hours,
eventually moving inland along the OBX of ENC late Monday night.
The latest suite of model guidance is in much better agreement
on the track and strength of the low. Ensemble guidance suggests
the low will deepen to 1005-1010 mb as it tracks towards the
coast. This will setup a strong pressure gradient across the
area, with notably strong northeasterly winds expected through
tonight, especially along the coast. For the OBX, in particular,
sustained winds of 30-35 mph and gusts of 40-45 mph appear
likely from this morning through late this evening. A few 45+
mph gusts will be possible, especially from Ocracoke and Hatteras
Island north through Duck. With sustained winds forecast to
exceed 30 mph with gusts of 45+ mph possible, have issued a
Wind Advisory for Ocracoke, Hatteras Island, and the Northern
Outer Banks through this late this evening. The strengthening
winds plus already elevated water levels is expected to lead to
minor coastal flooding impacts. Please see the COASTAL FLOOD
section below for additional information.
Aloft, a shortwave embedded within the larger cutoff upper low
over the Southeast U.S. will pivot north along the coast of the
Carolinas later today and tonight. This will lead to an area of
upper level diffluence coupled with strengthening low-mid level
frontogenesis on the NW side of the coastal low. Meanwhile,
increasing moisture advection into the area should support a
fairly rapid moistening of the column, with PWATs increasing to
1.50-1.75". The deepening layer of moisture coupled with
moderate to strong forcing should support a band of moderate to
heavy rain along the west, NW, and north side of the track of
the low. Given the latest forecast track of the low, the
instability axis should manage to get pulled NW into at least
the eastern half of ENC, supporting areas of convection within
the broader stratiform rain area. Where these convective
elements materialize, rainfall rates of 1"/hr appear plausible.
The latest deterministic and ensemble guidance have trended
higher with rainfall totals, and it now looks like a solid 1-3"
of rain will occur for much of the area. Subtle changes in the
track of the low will lead to adjustments in the axis of
heaviest rainfall, but a needed soaking rain appears more and
more likely.
It should be noted that where convection is the most
persistent, rainfall totals of 3-6"+ are within the reasonable
worst case scenario. Probabilistic guidance suggests the
greatest risk of these higher amounts will be focused along the
HWY 264 corridor and across the OBX from Cape Lookout north.
This area has been very dry of late, and is generally a swampy,
lower flash flood risk area. However, for areas around
Greenville, Martin County, and east across the OBX, those higher
rainfall rates could certainly pose a risk of some flood/flash
flooding. A Flood Watch was considered, but we`ll give the next
shift one more look at model trends in case there are any
significant shifts in axis of heaviest rainfall.
In addition to the heavy rain and flooding risk, the above-
mentioned instability axis edging inland on the N/NE side of the
low appears supportive of a conditional risk of tornadoes. It
appears the greatest overlap of 1000j/kg+ CAPE and 100-150+
m2/s2 SRH will be focused from Ocracoke/Hatteras Islands north
through mainland Hyde/Dare Counties and Tyrell County. This type
of setup appears favorable for short-lived, weak tornadoes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Monday...
The coastal low is expected to weaken as it slows down/stalls
in the vicinity of ENC on Tuesday. Guidance differ on how
quickly the low will weaken, and how long it will reside over
the area. This leads to differences in where rain will be the
most persistent, and where it will become more showery.
Consequently, this leads to significant differences with
rainfall totals. There are also differences regarding how far
inland the instability axis will get, and whether or not a
conditional tornado risk will last into the morning hours. In
general, it looks like the shower and thunderstorm chance will
gradually decrease from south to north as the low weakens and
begins to slowly move north out of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Vertically stacked low pressure will
continue to weaken over the area, and lift off to the NE. Most
guidance shows light additional rainfall amounts, generally
less than a quarter of an inch. Temps will continue to be below
normal, especially max temps with highs expected in the mid to
upper 70s Wednesday and upper 70s/lower 80s Thursday.
Ridging builds aloft Friday into the weekend with a backdoor
cold front progged to push through the area Friday night into
Saturday with north to northeast flow returning once again. Dry
conditions expected Friday into Saturday but could see precip
chances return late in the weekend with shortwave energy
approaching from the west, but guidance isn`t as clear on the
upper level and surface pattern by then. Temps look to be near
normal Friday into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 200 AM Monday...VFR conditions continue to prevail across
much of ENC as of 2 AM Monday, but conditions will
progressively drop to MVFR and likely IFR conditions throughout
the TAF period as showers and low ceilings begin to spread
across the region ahead of an approaching offshore low. Skies
are currently mostly to partly cloudy with some mid and high
level clouds across ENC. Only exceptions are along the immediate
coast where a band of showers have brought sub-VFR conditions
stretching from MRH to HSE. Current high-res guidance is not
handling this ongoing shower activity well, but confidence is
moderate-to-high that showers and sub-VFR ceilings will remain
south/east of TAF sites for the next several hours. This
activity will continue to be monitored should showers persist
farther inland than currently expected. By tomorrow morning,
low- level moisture and showers will spread westward as offshore
low gradually meanders closer to the coast, bringing sub-VFR
conditions to TAF sites, with ceilings gradually lowering from
above 2000 ft to 1000-2000 feet through the morning and early
afternoon. Heavier showers (with potential thunder) will also be
possible tomorrow afternoon and could bring further
degradations to flight categories temporarily should heavier
showers move over terminals. Chances for more widespread IFR
conditions appear to be increasing within guidance starting late
tomorrow. Have added IFR mention to TAFs, but exact timing will
need further refinement with future cycles based on exact track
and strength of the low. Northerly winds will remain gusty
tomorrow, with winds of 10-15 kts and gusts to 20-30 kts (20- 30
kts with gusts 30-40 kts OBX).
LONG TERM /Tonight through Friday/...
As of 200 AM Monday...Vertically stacked low remains over the
area Monday night through Wednesday while gradually weakening,
then lifts away from the area for the latter half of the week.
High probability of sub-VFR conditions (>80%) Monday night
through Tuesday morning, then 50-75% Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday night. Improving conditions expected Thursday with VFR
conditions gradually returning. Pred VFR conditions expected
Friday ahead of a backdoor cold front.
Winds expected to begin tapering off Tuesday, gradually falling to
10-15 kts (gusts to 20 kts) Tuesday night as the low weakens.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 230 AM Monday...
Key Messages...
- Rough Marine conditions continue through short term.
- Gale Warnings now in effect for all waters but inland rivers
Tonight through Monday Night
An upper level low translates over the Carolinas tonight with
offshore surface low pressure continuing to deepen along a stalled
frontal boundary. While some guidance has trended downward slightly
with winds, confidence is still high in Gale Force winds
developing across most of the waters early Monday morning and
continuing through Monday night, with winds gradually decreasing
from south to north. While guidance is in fairly good agreement
regarding the timing of the low moving inland Tuesday, there
remains some disagreement regarding the exact track of the low,
with a larger camp of models (including GFS/ECMWF) indicating
the low will likely move inland between Cape Hatteras and Cape
Lookout, some guidance (ICON/HRRR) suggest the low will instead
work it way northward offshore of the OBX before turning inland
north of Cape Hatteras. The exact track of the low will
influence the duration and direction of stronger winds over area
waters and will be monitored over coming cycles. Low will
become vertically stacked and stall across ENC after moving
inland, which will bring slowly improving conditions as the low
begins to fill. Seas are currently around 6-10 ft and will
continue to build to 7-12 ft through Monday. The exception is
nearshore Onslow Bay were offshore winds will keep seas subdued
a bit at around 3-5 ft. Seas will slowly subside Monday night
into Tuesday to around 3-6 ft by late Tuesday afternoon.
LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
As of 230 AM Monday...
Key Messages:
- Gradually improving conditions mid to late week.
Vertically stacked low continues over the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday with winds weakening to 10-20 kt as the surface low
continues to fill. Seas around 3-6 ft Tuesday evening expected to
subside to 2-4 ft by late Wednesday afternoon. Weak high pressure
builds into the area Thursday into Friday with variable winds around
10 kt and seas 2-3 ft.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Deepening low pressure off the coast will
bring strong winds and elevated seas bringing coastal flooding
concerns to portions of the area. A Coastal Flood Advisory has
been issued for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands for Ocean Overwash
as well as Pamlico, Southern Craven and Eastern Carteret
Counties for sound side flooding.
Large seas presently around 7-8 ft off of Hatteras Island is
bringing minor ocean overwash at the Buxton Motels with this
afternoon`s high tide, as seen on NCDOT webcams. Seas will
continue to build overnight and Monday to around 10ft+ and
expect overwash to continue to be a concern at vulnerable
locations on Hatteras island, especially around high tide. The
next few high tides will occur around 2 AM tonight, 3 PM
Monday and 3 AM Monday night. Monday afternoon`s high tide will
occur when winds and seas are at their peak and could be the
most impactful time for overwash. The north end of Ocracoke is
also vulnerable to ocean overwash but winds will be offshore
and near shore seas will not be quite as high so there is some
uncertainty where overwash will occur here but have included in
the CFA due to its vulnerability.
NNE winds around 25-35 kt will also bring elevated water levels
along the southern portions of the Pamlico Sound and along the
Neuse and Bay Rivers and Core Banks where water levels could
reach 1-2 ft above ground.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ094-194-
     196.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-205.
     Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203>205.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-150-230-231.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154-156.
     Gale Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...ZC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion