Surgoinsville, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

604
FXUS64 KMRX 041753
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
153 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
- Dry weather can be expected through the weekend. Medium chances
  (30-60%) for showers and a few storms make a return Tuesday and
  Wednesday.
- Temperatures will begin the period slightly above normal,
  becoming more typical for early October by the latter half of
  the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Mostly clear skies and light winds should allow for additional
patchy fog tonight. Anomalous upper level ridging and surface high
pressure will promote above normal temperatures and dry conditions
as we continue through the weekend and into early portions of the
new work week. The main difference from the previous few days will
be increased moisture advection as H85 flow enhances to 20-30kts and
becomes better oriented for transporting Gulf moisture. As a result,
dewpoints will increase a few degrees and it may feel a tad more
humid, though nothing too significant. The enhanced LLJ will also
promote breezy winds across higher terrain the next few nights.
A deep trough over the western CONUS will gradually swing eastward
early into mid-week, however, it will be lifting northward as it
does so. The approach of an associated front will allow shower and
storm chances to make a return come Tuesday and Wednesday. The best
upper level dynamics will remain displaced to our north and latest
GFS soundings paint MUCAPE less than 1500 J/kg, suggesting no
significant convection. The main question will be how much rainfall
can we squeeze out of the system. Latest NBM probabilities of 48hr
QPF suggest 0.25-0.75" a good range to represent the CWA. Those
higher end values will generally favor locations north of I-40 while
0.50" or less will favor along and south.
The potential to have some reinforcing shortwaves traverse mean flow
aloft will linger low chances(10-30%) of PoPs each day through
the remainder of the forecast period. Overall, the main focus for
the latter half of the week into the weekend will be focused on a
return to near normal temperatures associated with H5 height
falls.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
High pressure will continue to promote clear skies and light winds
for the TAF cycle. Expect some patchy fog to develop across the
region tonight but confidence in any impacts to a terminal is too
low to include at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             61  83  66  82 /   0  10  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  57  83  63  83 /   0   0  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       56  82  61  82 /   0   0  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              51  80  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion