Sycamore Square, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

492
FXUS61 KAKQ 180626
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
226 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A lingering area of low pressure continues to move offshore and
away from the area today. A brief warmup is expected today and
tomorrow before a return to near to slightly below average
temperatures this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Drizzle will continue through 9-10 AM.
- Weather conditions improve later today as the low exits the area.
Low pressure at the surface and aloft is centered just offshore of
the Delmarva Peninsula early this morning. Widespread low cloud
cover, mist, and patchy fog continues to prevail across the local
area due to lingering LLVL moisture on the back side of the low. The
low cloud cover will hang around through much of the morning, but
gradual clearing is expected to occur from west to east later today.
Skies should become partly to mostly sunny by late afternoon as high
pressure moves back into the area with the low moving further off
the coast. High temperatures for the day will climb into the lower
80s along and west of I-95 and upper 70s East of I-95. Mostly clear
and seasonably cool tonight with lows dropping back into the upper
50s-lower 60s. Cannot rule out patchy fog late tonight (mainly east
of I-95), especially where the heaviest rain fell.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Warm and pleasant weather conditions are expected Friday as high
  pressure remains in control.
- A backdoor cold front crosses the area on Saturday, dropping
  temperatures to near to slightly below average for the
  weekend with mainly dry weather.
A weak upper level ridge will be centered over the area Friday. At
the surface, high pressure will remain in control and 850-925mb
temps are progged to warm by a few degrees C despite weak low-level
flow. Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 80s across the area.
Localized upper 80s are possible. With the high remaining over the
area with mostly clear skies, temps drop back into the lower 60s
Friday night. A cooling trend (but not a huge one) is expected this
weekend. A backdoor cold front crosses the area Saturday morning,
shifting the winds to the ENE-NE. Mainly dry on Sat with highs in
the upper 70s-lower 80s NE with lower-mid 80s SW. Can`t rule out an
isolated shower Sat aftn across the Piedmont. The onshore flow
continues on Sunday as 1025-1030mb high pressure builds from
northern New England to Nova Scotia. It will be cooler with more
cloud cover with a low chance for a light shower or two across much
of the area. Highs Sun mainly in the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry with near to slightly above average temperatures
  early next week.
- Rain chances potentially return by late next week.
Upper heights rise a bit early next week as ridging builds offshore
of the SE CONUS coast and a strong upper low dives into the central
Plains. Surface high pressure will be centered offshore of Nova
Scotia on Mon/Tue, with the associated surface ridge still over the
area. While this type of pattern can lead to a CAD setup, the
guidance shows a slight warming trend with highs back into the lower
80s early next week with minimal precip chances through at least
Wednesday. Nevertheless, will continue to watch the potential for
temps to be cooler than expected. Rain chances return by late in the
week as the low in the Plains slowly tracks eastward.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...
MVFR CIGs prevail near the coast, with IFR-LIFR at RIC/ECG as
low pressure lingers near the coast. In addition, drizzle
continues to reduce VSBYs to 1-2SM at times at RIC. CIGs may
drop to IFR at SBY/PHF/ORF in the next few hours. We`ll finally
see improving conditions later this morning, with MVFR at all
terminals by 15z. CIGs should rise back to VFR by early to mid
afternoon (sub-VFR CIGs linger the longest near the coast).
Any drizzle should end by 13-14z, with dry wx expected for the
remainder of the period. Light/variable winds become NW (~5
knots) today as the low dissipates/moves away.
Outlook: Outside of localized instances of morning patchy fog,
dry/VFR conditions are expected tonight into Saturday. Another
round of sub-VFR CIGs may be possible Saturday night into Sunday
in the wake of a backdoor cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 225 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Benign marine conditions return today and Friday.
- A back door cold front this weekend may bring SCA conditions.
The early morning analysis shows the weak coastal low pressure is
now centered off the coast of the Eastern Shore. The current wind
direction is mostly W with light winds around 5 kt this morning.
Waves and seas have subsided across the local waters with waves
around 1 ft in the Ches. Bay and seas 3-4 ft in the coastal waters.
Sub-SCA criteria will continue through the day today and Friday with
light WNW winds 5-10 kt and 2-3 ft seas (1 ft waves). The weak flow
will allow the sea breeze to gain control in the afternoons. A back
door cold front will move southward into the area on Saturday, which
will slightly elevate the NE winds, primarily in the northern
coastal waters and northern bay beginning Saturday afternoon. Winds
will likely peak Sunday afternoon at 15-20 kt. Local wind probs have
a 40-60% chance of sustained 18 kt winds for the coastal waters and
mouth of the Ches. Bay Sunday afternoon and evening. Waves and seas
will also increase with 5-6 ft seas in the coastal waters Sunday
into Monday. SCA are possible, but not expecting anything
significant for this time of year. Winds will likely return to sub-
SCA criteria by early next week.
Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is in effect for all
beaches today as onshore flow continues. Low risk of rip currents is
expected everywhere Friday and Saturday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 225 AM EDT Thursday...
Water levels and tidal anomalies continue to drop today with most of
the area posing no coastal flooding threat. Nuisance flooding is
possible on the Chesapeake Bay side of the MD Eastern Shore (near
Bishop`s Head and Crisfield) with the Thursday overnight`s high
tide.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HET
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...KMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion