475 FXUS62 KTAE 101646 AFDTAEArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1246 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE... Issued at 1057 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
No significant changes to the forecast from the Near Term below.
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.NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 238 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Troughing over the eastern CONUS is forecast to continue today with northeasterly winds remaining at the surface. A stalled front currently draped south of our Gulf waters will continue to slowly push southward and further away from our area. Dry and partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions are expected today, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s this afternoon. Low relative humidity today will keep max heat indices near the actual temperatures as well. Lows overnight are forecast in the low to mid 60s inland and the upper 60s near the coast.
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.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 238 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
The pattern described for today above pretty much remains in place through the rest of the period. Troughing in some capacity is forecast to remain over the region aloft with generally northeasterly winds at the surface. This will keep the warm but dry air mass overhead and conditions fairly pleasant for the upcoming week. No rain is currently forecast, and high temperatures are expected to generally remain in the upper 80s to mid 90s each day. Dry conditions will also keep heat indices pretty close to the ambient temperatures as well. Low temperatures are forecast in the 60s.
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR through the period with NE winds generally less than 10 kts.
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.MARINE... Issued at 238 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Small craft advisory continues into today for most waters. A pesky boundary south of our Gulf waters is responsible for the uptick in winds and marine convection will gradually shift southward later this week while high pressure slowly builds across the southeast US into the northeast Gulf. Showers become few and far between beginning late week while winds gradually decrease though periods of cautionary conditions may occur overnight with offshore northeasterly surges.
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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 238 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Breezy northeasterly flow and dry conditions are expected for the rest of the week and into the weekend. This will lead to pockets of high dispersions across the area each day. While drier conditions are forecast through the period, RH values are forecast to remain above critical thresholds. Therefore, fire weather concerns remain fairly low.
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.HYDROLOGY... Issued at 238 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
No flooding is expected this week.
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.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 88 66 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 90 69 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 86 62 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 87 61 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 63 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 90 69 90 66 / 20 10 10 0 Apalachicola 87 70 87 71 / 10 0 0 0
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.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ108-115.
GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.
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NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...LF MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Merrifield
NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion