Taber, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

307
FXUS65 KPIH 192236
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
436 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Average to Above Average Temperatures Continue Through the
  Weekend
- Virga Possible Today, Although A Few Sprinkles Possible
- Showers and Storms Over the Weekend, Especially Sunday
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Monsoon moisture is still increasing and will continue to do so
through the weekend. The potential for any type of shower or
thunderstorm develop is fairly slim through tonight. Any real
threat will be across the South Hills and Albion Mountains.
Elsewhere any chance is 10% at best, and most likely wouldn`t be
much more than sprinkles. The threat of gusty thunderstorm
winds, or any increase in wind is really low. The chance
increases tomorrow, especially south of a Driggs to Hollister
line. Most showers and storms will produce light rain, but where
stronger storms develop or we get multiple storms over the same
location...moderate rainfall accumulation is possible. There is
a 10-20% chance of more than 0.25" across the South Hills,
Albion Mountains, and southeast highlands. There is a 5-10%
chance of seeing more than 0.50 in the same areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The best chance of showers and storms areawide will be Sunday,
and eastern areas on Monday. There is better agreement today on
what happens with the closed low early next week, which is to
close it off east of the Divide. We will see a decent amount of
moisture with the storm as it develops. Most of the
precipitation falls in higher elevations with this storm. There
is 15-35% chance of more than 0.25" in the central mountains and
up to 50-60% in the eastern and southeast highlands. The
potential for over 0.50" peaks between 20-50% along and east of
I-15 through Monday morning. Those chances are in a given 12
hour period anywhere from 6am Sunday - 6am Monday. Showers and
storms will linger east of I-15 Monday, but Tuesday and
Wednesday looks dry as high pressure rebuilds for a short time
over our area. The end of next week COULD be showery again. The
Blend of Models follows the trend of the GFS and ECMWF, which
brings a closed low far enough north to increase clouds and kick
off some showers and storms. Temperatures are trending much
cooler for Monday. Valley highs are now only expected to be in
the mid to upper 60s, which is 5-10 degrees BELOW AVERAGE. We
should rebound quickly next week and push back above average for
the end of September.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 429 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Cirriform cloudiness is coming from a trough moving in from the
south. -SHRA appears to be in Cassia County, south of KBYI, but
not amounting to much. There may be a break in cloudiness during
the afternoon Sat, but overall there will be some areas of mid-
level CIGs and at the very end of the forecast period some
isolated -SHRA should develop, except for KIDA and KDIJ where it
will occur shortly beyond the forecast period. However, do not
expect the precipitation to have any impact on VSBY. Clouds may
end the sun angle issues at KBYI where VSBY is reduced, but may
have false readings of marginal VFR at KBYI for about an hour
around 20/01Z. As the trough approaches, wind will go up, but
only to around the 10-15KT range right now for places where
downslope can be expected with southerly wind (KPIH and KBYI).
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Despite the cloud cover across the region, little to no
precipitation is expected today, even across the south where the
"chances" are best. Maybe a sprinkle this afternoon and evening.
Chances increase for Saturday, and again on Sunday as a surge of
moisture moves in and a Pacific shortwave shifts inland. Sunday
would be the better chances of measurable precipitation, with higher
elevation regions seeing a 25-35% chance of a wetting rain. Those
chances rise to 35-45% east of I-15 for Sunday evening and overnight
as the frontal system associated with the low shifts through the
region. Following the frontal system, temperatures will be below
normal for Monday, with most lower elevation highs in the mid 60s-
low 70s. A ridge of high pressure building into the region Monday
through at least Wednesday should keep the region dry. There is
quite a bit of uncertainty after midweek with respect to breaking
down the ridge and allowing another system into the state, but for
now any precipitation chances look isolated at best to round out the
week.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...DMH

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion