Taopi Post Office, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

214
FXUS63 KARX 251035
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
535 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably mild conditions through the middle part of next week
(approx 10 degrees above the late Sep normals). Some locations
likely to push north of 80 degrees starting Friday - especially
along/south of I-90 and in the Mississippi River Valley.
- Staying dry into the start of next week, but could linger until
the following weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Positively tilted upper level trough axis with closed low over the
great lakes early this morning will finally get a kick east today,
showing some weakening as it moves over the new england states by
Fri morning. Broad upper level ridging builds across the upper
mississippi river valley post the trough, working to shuffle any
west-east moving shortwave activity north of the region.
Moving into the weekend and early next week the GEFS and EPS have
continued to move toward a sharper, stronger upper level ridge
building across the region. The WPC clusters also mimic, and have
shown this trend over the past several days. There is an Omega block
look to it.
Some progression to the upper level pattern for the latter half of
next week in the EPS and GEFS - both suggesting the ridge could
shift east with a trough moving in by the weekend. Forecast
confidence low in this stead as strength of the omega-ish blocking
pattern isn`t certain.
Upshot to all of this? The forecast area is going to stay dry into
the middle part of next week with above normal temps (but not crazy
warm).
> RAIN CHANCES: as mentioned above, the ridge/blocking pattern will
act as strong deterrent to shortwave encroachment as we move through
the weekend into next week. Long range guidance starts to suggest
rain chances could work in by the latter half of next week with a
stronger southerly fetch/shortwave interaction. Again, a ton of
uncertainty here. All in all, look for dry conditions into *at
least* the start of the new work week.
> TEMPERATURES: a mild/warm stretch of days on the horizon thanks to
the upper level ridge. Grand Ensemble paints 70-100% chances for 70+
degree highs through the middle part of next week. Same ensemble
suggests 10-50% likelihood to reach 80+ degrees from I-90 southward,
including locations within the Mississippi River valley. Roughly 10
degrees above the late Sep normals. So, not "hot", but certainly
warm for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Valley fog will be the primary aviation consideration over the next
24 hours with ongoing LIFR fog in the Mississippi River and in
various tributaries. Vsbys currently remain at 1/4SM at KLSE
however, with the periodic calm wind at the terminal have opted
to keep 1/4SM as tempo mention since the lack of persistent
drainage wind may allow vsbys to improve periodically. Valley
fog will generally lift around 15z with conditions improving to
VFR for the afternoon areawide. Will need to watch how forecast
trends manifest throughout the day as additional valley fog
will be possible tonight and early Friday morning given the
light sfc winds and clear skies. Overall, the current RAP/HRRR
generally has a similar light wind layer depth as what produced
the fog this morning so mentioned some BCFG in this TAF issuance
for KLSE beginning at 09z Friday.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION...Naylor

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion