Tarawa, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

666
FXUS62 KMHX 061401
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1001 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west today and move through
the area late tonight into Sunday bringing moderate to heavy
rain and thunderstorm chances to the area. Heaviest rain is
expected to be east of hwy 17. High pressure will build in late
this weekend into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
As of 10 AM Saturday...Morning fog has dissipated since the
previous update with just some high clouds noted along the OBX
and portions of the Hwy 17 corridor. Winds remain light and
S`rly for the most part and temps have gotten into the mid 70s
to low 80s as of this update. Little in the way of changes to
the forecast on this update as we expect a primarily dry and
hot day today.
A broad upper trough continues to reside over the eastern CONUS
through the short term. An embedded shortwave moving through
the flow aloft and attendant sfc cold front will slowly approach
the area today with the front moving into the central Carolinas
this afternoon. In addition, a coastal trough will remain off
the coast through the short term. Generally expect mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies today with precip chances remaining
west of the area or off the coast closer to the aforementioned
frontal boundaries. Low level thicknesses increase several
meters over yesterday so expect temps to be a few degrees warmer
than yesterday with highs in the low 90s inland and mid to upper
80s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Saturday...The cold front will slowly push across
the area tonight reaching coastal sections late. Could see a few
showers pushing into the western coastal plain this evening but
upper level support will remain limited until later on Sunday,
so will be keeping PoP below mentionable for most of the area.
With increasing low level moisture guidance is suggesting patchy
fog developing late tonight but clouds will be gradually
increasing curtailing radiational cooling. Lows tonight expected
around 70 inland and low to mid 70s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...
Key Messages
- Heavy rain chances increase Sunday east of hwy 17 as cold
   front briefly stalls
- Cooler conditions late this weekend into next week
- Errant showers possible along the coast early next week as
  coastal trough lingers, best chances of rain Tue and Wed
Sunday (9/7):
Front briefly stalls along the coast Sunday afternoon and evening,
as an upper level trough approaches and we enter the right entrance
region of a jet. The mix of daytime heating, upper level support,
and increased convergence with the stalled front and the seabreeze
suggest potential for a narrow swath of higher precip values in
excess of 1" In the vicinity of Onslow, Jones, Carteret,
Craven, and Pamlico counties. Exact location of this swath
(whether further inland or offshore) is dependent on where the
front stalls Sunday and how it interacts with the afternoon sea
breeze. Weak shear should keep thunderstorms relatively
disorganized, but PWATs near 2" will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall along the convergence zone. Storms should
be progressive, but storm motion may be parallel to the
boundary, resulting in training of storms. Given the recent
drier stretch of weather, it will be harder for flash flooding
to occur, but as more high res guidance comes in, this will be
something worth monitoring as it is dependent on coverage,
residence time, and location of heavy showers and storms. In a
reasonable worst case scenario, heavy rain (2-4") over urban
areas in the aforementioned counties may result in a few
instances of
Rest of Long Term:
Front finally moves offshore late Sunday, stalling along the
gulf stream keeping much of the additional precip offshore as
well. Errant showers are possible through early next week along
the coast, originating from this stalled front/coastal trough
offshore. NE flow behind the front as high pressure builds in
will bring a stretch of drier, and cooler conditions inland
through much of next week. Mid-week, a wave looks to move
through along the coastal trough. This will bring the best
chances of showers reaching the coast and perhaps even areas
inland.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Saturday...Patchy shallow fog is most concentrated
along the Crystal Coast. OAJ and EWN have been reporting
occasional vsbys as low as VLIFR but looking at the EWN webcam,
the fog is only concentrated over parts of the field. Expect
the fog to burn off quickly most areas but may hang on until
9-10 am along the Crystal Coast. Otherwise pred VFR conditions
expected today. A cold front will slowly approach the area today
and push across rtes tonight. Shower/thunderstorm chances
remain low across most of the area but could see and isolated
storm moving into the western coastal plain this evening. Some
guidance is suggesting patchy fog possible late tonight but
radiational cooling will be curtailed by increasing clouds and
stratus may be more prominent, especially post frontal areas.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Widespread sub-VFR cigs may develop along
and behind a stalled front Sunday, potentially lingering into
early next week. Scattered showers and storms expected,
especially for OAJ and EWN (and areas east) Sunday afternoon and
eve. Rain chances increase again, especially along the coast,
Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...A cold front will slowly approach the
waters today and push into the area late tonight. Light and
variable winds this morning will become southerly around 10-15
kt late this afternoon and evening then will become SW to W
around 5-10 kt late tonight. Seas will be around 2-3 ft today
with some 4 ft seas developing across the outer waters tonight.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Prolonged period of SCA conditions likely to develop early
  next week
The front will move through the waters Saturday night and early
Sunday. Moderate NNE flow will develop behind the front Sunday
10-15 kt, increasing to 20-25 kt (gusting to near 30kts) Mon
and Tue. Seas will remain at 2-4 ft this weekend, building to
4-8 ft Monday into Tuesday. Seas abate as winds ease late
Tuesday into Wednesday, with southern waters (Onslow Bay) first
to see sub 6ft seas as early as Tuesday night. Northern waters
(off of NOBX) may not see sub-6ft seas until mid to late day
Wednesday.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/RCF
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion