Tarpley, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

156
FXUS64 KEWX 241151
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
651 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front will move across the area today into early Thursday
bringing rain chances to the area.
- Seasonable temperatures return behind this front and continue
through the period.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A cold front is draped across North Central Texas early this morning
which is expected to slowly move south through the overnight hours
reaching our northernmost CWA later this this morning. The front
will continue its southward progression during the daytime hours
bringing rain chances to all of South Central Texas. Most hi-res
guidance has a convection waning at some point during this frontal
passage, either at its onset into the area this morning or a
bit later this afternoon. This gives a bit of uncertainty on
exactly where rain will fall today and which locations will miss
out. Latest HREF guidance has come in drier than previous runs
with a relative lull noted over the I-35 corridor. That said,
any storms we do see today will still have the potential to
produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty wind up to severe
levels mainly tied to peak heating in the afternoon. SPC
continues its level 1 of 5 risk for much of the area today for
this wind threat while WPC continues a level 1 of 4 risk for
excessive rainfall over mainly the coastal plains. With any
stronger thunderstorms, we could see a quick 1-2 inches due to
high PWATS along the front and relatively slow moving storms.
Some elevated thunderstorms may linger overnight into the
morning hours of Thursday with most models favoring the Rio
Grande Plains where moisture remains high. Dry weather will
return Thursday behind the front with skies clearing during the
day.
As for temperatures today, north of the front highs will be in the
mid 80s to low 90s while south highs may be similar to yesterday in
the upper 90s with heat index values in the triple digits. Some
cooler temperatures will start to make their way in tonight with
lows roughly 3 to 7 degrees cooler than early this morning. Highs
Thursday will be some of the coolest of the week in the mid 80s over
the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau and in the upper 80s
to low 90s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Drier and slightly cooler weather are forecast in the long term
period. Low temperatures are where we really start to feel the
difference behind the mid-week front returning into the 60s each
night through next week. A few locations in the Hill Country or
southern Edwards Plateau may even briefly drop into the 50s early
Friday and Saturday mornings. Daytime highs will still be on the
warm side, but more seasonable for late September from the upper 80s
to low 90s. With mid-level ridging over the area Friday into the
weekend dry conditions are forecast. Mid-level troughing moves over
the Four Corners region early next week, though latest guidance
continues weak ridging and a predominantly dry forecast over South
Central Texas through the long term period.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Broken MVFR cigs begin the TAFs over the I-35 Corridor and a few
MVFR pockets appear to be showing up near DRT. There should be
MVFR cigs off-and-on through at least 16Z for most areas, but
faster clearing could occur at AUS for frontal arrival, and at
DRT to shifting wind directions that are not front related.
Frontal timing is adjusted slightly, showing FROPA at AUS near
or after 16Z, closer to 20Z at SAT, and 21Z or so at DRT/SSF.
The DRT frontal timing will be toughest to assess given all the
prefrontal topography induced wind shifts that occur there. As
for convection, AUS probably will have the best chance to see a
storm to arrive on time, whereas the other 3 TAF sites have a
wider window when convection could appear. Will keep to the near
midday timing for AUS, then late afternoon/early evening for
the other 3. Due to a generally dry regime about this front,
we`ll keep post frontal cigs mainly VFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  91  66  92 /  50  20   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  90  64  91 /  50  20   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  90  64  91 /  70  30   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            66  86  61  87 /  30  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  91  70  92 /  50  30   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  88  62  89 /  30  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             71  89  65  90 /  60  40   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  91  63  92 /  60  30   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  89  61  90 /  50  30   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  90  68  90 /  60  30   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  91  69  92 /  70  40   0   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...18

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion