Tarpon Springs, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

171
FXUS62 KTBW 232325
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
725 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Weak flow over the region today as moisture has returned from the
S that combined with the late afternoon seabreeze and outflow
boundaries to produce scattered early afternoon convection that
developed into a well defined N-S seabreeze collision line of
numerous thunderstorms with some strong winds and heavy rainfall.
Residual thunderstorms will continue to drift and weaken over that
area into this evening while large outflow boundary moving back to
the coast has produced isolated storms as well. Expect all these
storms to eventually die off with clearing conditions by midnight.
The very warm and humid conditions with inland rain coverage
continue through mid week as well.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
SCT TSRA lingering this evening on old boundaries with brief MVFR
conditions possible but will keep VCTS in all terminals thru 02Z
to handle this. Conditions improve areawide aft 02Z with VFR
conditions expected overnight with light E winds. Expect afternoon
TSRA again WED with the seabreeze moving inland.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Showers and storms today have lingered off the coast of SWFL through
the day. Some of the coastal showers could move onshore as the sea
breeze develops. Later this afternoon into the evening, showers and
storms will begin to develop inland along the sea breeze boundaries.
Majority of activity will likely be south of I-4, similar to
yesterday. Though a few isolated showers could develop further
north. Heavy downpours could lead to areas of isolated urban street
flooding. Tomorrow will feature much of the same as the majority of
the moisture will be contained to south of I-4.
A frontal boundary approaches as the weekend arrives, bringing
increased rain chances throughout the region. Unfortunately this
"cold front" is not expected to cool things off. High temperatures
will still be in the upper 80s low 90s into next week. Low
temperatures could dip back down in the 60s for the northernmost
forecast area for a couple of days.
High pressure looks to build back over the area early next week.
This will allow dry air to filter, decreasing rain chances once
again.
Still keeping an eye on the tropics, as the NHC has 2 areas of
interest marked for potential development in the Atlantic. Still too
early to determine intensity or track of these systems, if they even
develop. We will continue to monitor the situation and update as
needed.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
NOrtheast flow continues through the next couple of days with an
afternoon shift onshore as the seabreeze develops. Gust winds,
frequent lightning, and strong downpours possible with showers and
storms that develop over the waters. Winds increase and shift more
southwest to west later in the week as a frontal boundary approaches
FL
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Plenty of moisture over the area will keep fire concerns limited
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  78  91 /  30  50  20  40
FMY  75  92  75  91 /  30  60  20  50
GIF  75  94  75  92 /  20  60  20  60
SRQ  75  91  75  89 /  30  50  20  40
BKV  71  93  72  91 /  30  40  20  40
SPG  77  89  78  88 /  30  40  20  40
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion