Three Notch, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

502
FXUS64 KBMX 040538
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1238 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- Dry conditions continue today as drought continues to worsen
   across Central Alabama.
- A weak disturbance in the Gulf will bring 20-30% rain chances
   Sunday through early next week, but chances of rainfall
   amounts exceeding 1 inch remain very low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
Saturday will be another dry one across Central Alabama, with highs
again in the mid 80s in most places and winds gusting 15-20 mph from
the east at times. Cloud cover will be more likely the further south
and east you get, with lesser cloud cover over northwestern areas.
By Sunday, a weak tropical disturbance over Florida will push
increased moisture up into Alabama, with a 20-30% rain chance Sunday
afternoon and again on Monday. These showers are expected to be
spotty in nature and move predominantly northwestward.
12
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
As mentioned in the short term discussion, increased moisture from
the tropical disturbance will lead to low rain chances on Monday. By
Tuesday and Wednesday, a weak front will work into the area,
maintaining 20-30% rain chances, mainly across northern and central
counties. Ahead of the front, high temperatures are forecast to be
in the mid to upper 80s in most areas Monday through Wednesday. A
slight cooldown is expected toward the end of the week, with upper
70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday.
Overall, the dry period will remain in place, as the small rain
chances throughout the forecast period will do little to halt
emerging or worsening drought conditions across different parts of
the region. With little relief in sight from a rainfall standpoint,
drought and fire danger is likely to continue, if not worsen,
through next week.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
All terminals should be VFR for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
light overnight, with easterly winds increasing during the day
Saturday. Gusts may be up to 15-18 kts at times. Winds will drop
again by the evening hours.
12
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Central Alabama will remain rain free until Sunday. A 20-30% rain
chance will be in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. RH values will
drop into the 30s across our western areas this afternoon. A
moderate risk of significant fire potential is outlooked today
across the area, but min RHs and winds are not forecast to meet Red
Flag criteria. outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to
ongoing drought conditions. No wetting rainfall is expected in the
coming days. Any amounts will be too light to mitigate the worsening
drought.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  63  83  65 /   0   0  10  10
Anniston    82  65  80  67 /   0   0  20  20
Birmingham  83  67  83  69 /   0   0  20  20
Tuscaloosa  86  67  85  70 /   0   0  20  20
Calera      85  66  84  69 /   0   0  20  20
Auburn      82  66  80  68 /   0  10  20  20
Montgomery  85  68  83  69 /   0  10  20  20
Troy        82  66  81  68 /   0  10  30  30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion