Tilden, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

463
FXUS63 KLSX 281128
AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
628 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm days, in the 80s, and cool nights, in the 50s, continue
  through the 7 day forecast with no opportunities for rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Surface high pressure over the Ozarks continues to maintain a warm
but moderately dry air mass in place across our region. Another
surface high in norther Iowa slowly rolls east today. A cold front
with cooler and drier air behind it has made it to about the
Missouri/Iowa border, but it won`t make it any further. As the
surface high driving this air mass moves east, southerly flow on its
back side pushes that remnant boundary northward today. The northern
high becomes dominant as it shifts into the Great Lakes and toward
New England on Monday. Meanwhile, ridging develops aloft centered
over the middle Mississippi River area today, with its influence
being strongest through about Tuesday. So while there are at least
some features moving about on our weather maps, we are not going to
see much change to our ongoing persistent weather pattern. We`re
going to continue to see warm days with highs reaching the mid to
upper 80s. These next few days will be some of our warmest with the
ridge developing overhead. But light winds at night in a moderately
dry air mass still allow for good cooling and temperatures dropping
back off into the 50s.
Kimble
&&
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Some degree of ridging persists over the central to eastern half of
the US for the rest of the week and into the weekend. That`s going
to keep our weather dry and warm for that entire time period. While
there is some activity in the tropical Atlantic, it`s clear now that
this will stay well away from our region. Expansive surface high
pressure settling into New England but with its influence felt all
the way to the Great Plains will also keep a low level easterly flow
across the southern tier of the US, preventing the northward
transport of Gulf or Atlantic moisture. In fact, we may even get a
little bit drier air circulating around the New England surface high
around midweek. With ridging aloft and a lack of significant
moisture, we won`t even be able to develop enough instability for
afternoon cumulus clouds most days let alone thunderstorms. Our dry
fall weather continues.
To find any chance for rain we have to look beyond our current 7-day
forecast into next week. By then guidance is indicating two things.
First, the ridge does eventually break down with some form of
troughing moving out of the western US. Second, tropical moisture
locked over the Gulf for so long does finally get a chance to push
northward. These are at least two ingredients that could spell
better rain chances at some point next week, though the details are
unclear. Greater moisture will likely lead to at least some
instability for the potential for thunderstorms, and depending on
how the ridge breaks down a passing trough or cold front could serve
as a focus for precipitation.
Kimble
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Calm or light southerly winds continue today under a clear sky.
Morning fog will be limited to valley locations and only brief
before burning off in the morning sun.
Kimble
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX

NWS LSX Office Area Forecast Discussion