Tontitown, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

900
FXUS64 KTSA 161019
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
519 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
- Above average temperatures continue today and Wednesday with
   low to medium /10-40 percent/ shower/storm chances each
   afternoon.
-  Weak frontal boundary moves in late Wednesday through the end
   of the week bringing increasing rain chances and slightly
   cooler temperatures
- At least low shower and storm chances linger into the weekend
   as various disturbances move nearby the local region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Isolated showers or storms may continue to fester through the
morning hours, otherwise expect a similar pattern of increasing
storm coverage during the afternoon before diminishing around
sunset. Locally gusty winds will be the primary concern with any
stronger storms. Temps also remain similar to recent days.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
The pattern aloft begins to transition somewhat on Wednesday as the
upper low currently over the NW CONUS begins to slowly move nearer
the Plains and ridging aloft weakens downstream. An initial weak
cold front and increasing precip chances move into NE OK on
Wednesday though warm and humid conditions will continue for most
locations.
More widespread convection is expected to spread into the region
Wednesday night through Thursday night as the influence of the
steadily upper low increases across the region. The composite
outflow boundary and/or weak cold front will move into the region on
Thursday while gradually losing definition by Friday.
Increasing cloud cover and higher precip coverage will help keep
temps cooler though a true change in airmass is not expected.
The pattern is likely to remain somewhat unsettled through next
weekend as upper ridging remains suppressed to the southwest CONUS
and plentiful moisture remains in place through the Plains. Temps
are likely to be around seasonal normals into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Reduced visibilities are ongoing at BVO and FYV and should
continue for the first hour of the valid TAF period before
improving to VFR. FYV looks to have another round of MVFR to
potentially IFR visibilities during the last few hours of the TAF.
Will include the MVFR mention with confidence not high enough to
include IFR visibilities in the TAF just yet. Afternoon
thunderstorm development and resultant on-station impact
potential remains most likely at the W AR terminals, with a lesser
but nonzero chance in E OK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  69  91  69 /  20  10  30  30
FSM   95  71  94  70 /  30  10  20  20
MLC   93  67  92  68 /  20   0  20  20
BVO   91  65  90  65 /  20  10  30  40
FYV   91  64  90  65 /  30  10  20  20
BYV   89  66  90  64 /  30  10  20  10
MKO   92  68  92  68 /  20  10  20  20
MIO   90  66  90  66 /  30  10  20  30
F10   91  67  91  66 /  20   0  30  30
HHW   91  68  90  68 /  20  10  20  20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion