Trees, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

723
FXUS64 KSHV 300408
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1108 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- Some increase in cloud cover today shouldn`t keep temperatures
   from climbing well into the 80s and perhaps even the lower 90s
   today.
- Above normal temperatures will continue well into the first
   week of October.
- There may be enough moisture by Thursday of this week to
   introduce widely scattered thunderstorm chances across our
   eastern half and again early next week across our southern
   sections.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Too warm for late September as afternoon high temperatures on
Monday ranged from near 90 to the lower 90s pretty much areawide.
Dewpoints took a noticeable jump on Monday as well which meant a
little more in the way of afternoon relative humidity which made
it feel even warmer. Look for this trend to continue through at
least the remainder of the week and even into the weekend
unfortunately.
The players in this very stagnant weather pattern remain mostly
unchanged. Upper level ridging continues to dominate across our
region with that ridge shifting eastward today as an inverted
upper trough cuts the ridge off...or helping to relocate it
across the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, an upper trough across the
Southeast CONUS will begin elongating or try to retrograde slowly
westward by the middle and end of this week. There may be enough
heating and deep layer moisture in place to initiate diurnally
driven convection, mainly across our eastern half Thursday
Afternoon. While our weather grids do not support this trend
continuing into the weekend, would not be surprised if we see very
similar conditions during the afternoons on Friday and through
the upcoming weekend as well as the proximity of the upper trough
to our region would support such a scenario.
By early next week, upper ridging takes over once again and
appears to be firmly anchored across our region. NBM is hinting at
isolated to widely scattered diurnally driven convection across
our southern most zones. Assuming enough moisture is available,
daytime heating could be enough to support such convection even in
the absence of any upper level forcing.
Otherwise, enjoy the much above normal temperatures as we move
into the first week plus of October with no cooler air on the
horizon unfortunately.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
For the 30/00z TAFs...Terminals should stay VFR for the period.
The only exception to this would be if there is fog development
around sunrise tomorrow, which could be possible with the dropping
winds overnight. I have left BR out of this package due to the
continued low-level dry air bringing uncertainty. It does look
like the upper-level trough to the west will be bringing heavier
cloud cover across the area. The HREF and the NBM are agreeing on
the rough timing of the cloud movement and suggesting these
clouds will be elevated enough to be safely in the VFR category.
Surface winds will largely be north/northeasterly at a maximum
speed of around 6 kts. /57/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  90  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  67  90  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  63  85  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  66  88  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  62  86  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  67  88  64  89 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  67  88  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  69  91  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...57

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion