Trio, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

307
FXUS62 KILM 151026
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
626 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure east of Cape Fear will spread clouds and some rain
across eastern North Carolina today and tonight. The low will
linger near the Outer Banks through Wednesday before high
pressure brings drier weather for the second half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Based on buoy and ship observations, surface low pressure is
centered about 200 miles east of Cape Fear, NC. Infrared satellite
shows no deep convection near the center and shows the presence of
strong upper level southerly winds over the system. This should keep
the potential for any tropical develop extremely low.
A 500 mb low just east of Savannah, GA should drift northward across
North Carolina by tonight. This upper low should tug the surface low
northwestward with time, leading to the system coming ashore Tuesday
morning across the southern Outer Banks. Breezy north winds around
15 mph could gust to 30 mph today. Moisture circulating westward
from the low should deepen appreciably north of Cape Fear later
today, likely leading to waves of showers moving onshore. While
there are still some model-to-model differences, most models show
the better potential for showers to occur north of a line from
Southport to Whiteville to Lumberton through this evening. My PoPs
are highest across Pender County (60-70 percent) where the upper 10
percent of NBM input models actually show potential for 1-2 inches
of rain today! Our official QPF forecast through tonight is somewhat
lower: one-quarter inch in Wilmington up to around half an inch near
Burgaw. Most of northeastern South Carolina should remain dry.
Scattered showers will continue across mainly southeastern North
Carolina tonight, although it`s possible their coverage will
diminish with time as the moisture-bearing northeasterly winds
become shallower. Surface winds should back around to the northwest
as the low approaches the North Carolina coast tonight with speeds
averaging 10 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low still overhead Tuesday but the main vort and thus surface
low will be in NE NC moving into VA. Wrap-around moisture leading to
rainfall, which should be very light, will be confined to NC as
opposed to SC. More notable is how high temps will be held a solid
10 degrees below climatology. Right now it looks like the second
vort that drops into the low will kick out the lead disturbance and
thus the surface low on Wednesday for a drying trend. The additional
insolation as this occurs will bring a day of more seasonable
temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday brings light flow both surface and aloft for quiet weather
while the loss of the northerly low level component from the short
term allows for a warming trend. Much the same holds true Friday
though a shortwave of little consequence does pass by overhead. This
trend could reverse as soon as Saturday but current guidance delays
the arrival of the next cooldown-inducing wedge until Sunday. No
major cooldown like Tuesday with this one but simply a return back
to climo temps.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KILM is the only airport with any significant potential for
non-VFR conditions through this evening. Offshore low pressure
is spreading moisture westward, potentially bringing periods of
showers and some ceiling/visibility restrictions today. The
potential for impacts is low this morning, but this increases
to a moderate potential after 18-19z this afternoon.
Scattered showers may continue to affect the KILM airport
tonight, but larger impacts could develop from low clouds
sweeping southward from areas to the north that pick up
significantly more rain. There is a moderate potential for MVFR
ceilings to develop after 00z at KILM, perhaps falling to IFR
mainly after 07z Tuesday. The KLBT and KCRE airports have a
low potential for MVFR ceilings after 06z tonight.
The only other weather concern for all local airports will be
breezy north winds gusting to 20-25 kt at times during the
daylight hours.
Extended Outlook...MVFR or local IFR ceilings may linger Tuesday
through Wednesday as slow-moving low pressure remains across eastern
North Carolina. Probability for impacts is slightly lower across the
South Carolina airports. VFR conditions are expected to develop
areawide Thursday into Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Low pressure centered about 200 miles east of Cape
Fear is expected to move slowly northwestward today, lining up
toward a landfall of sorts along the southern Outer Banks Tuesday
morning. Breezy north winds circling the low should average 20-25
knots across the NC waters and 15-20 knots across the SC waters.
This forecast is little changed from Sunday afternoon`s forecast
update with a Small Craft Advisory remaining in effect for our
southeastern North Carolina coastal waters. Rain appears likely to
develop later today north of Cape Fear, especially in the Surf
City/Topsail Island vicinity where it may become a washout this
afternoon into this evening. Rain chances are very slim from Myrtle
Beach southward.
Tuesday through Friday... Low pressure just to the north bringing
moderately strong offshore winds to start the period though winds
and waves look to be just below criteria for advisory. On Wednesday
as the low both fills and lifts slightly northward wind remains
westerly but lightens, seas following suit. This leaves a poorly
defined pressure pattern by Thursday for light and somewhat variable
winds and in the absence of swell energy very diminutive wind
waves. A weak upper level trough moving offshore Friday will not
lead to any development offshore keeping winds and seas minimal once
again.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...ILM

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion