Tryon, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

770
FXUS62 KGSP 101023
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
623 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will persist over the region through this weekend.
A gradual warming trend will begin on Thursday and continue into
early next week as an upper trough moves off the East Coast and
an upper ridge moves in from the west.  Dry weather will continue
at least through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 am Wednesday: Inverted surface ridge largely responsible
for the unseasonably cool and dry weather over our area the past
couple of days will continue to weaken through the near term, as
the upper flow atop the East becomes increasingly diffluent...in
response to an area of height falls that will move from the upper
Miss Valley early this morning, to the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley by the end of the period. This will bring the long wave
trough axis positioned west of the region this morning to the
Appalachians by the end of the period. The air mass over the CWA
will modify as a result, with max temps today expected to be around
5 degrees above yesterday`s observations while dewpoints will also
increase a few degrees. Nevertheless, temps and afternoon humidity
will remain below early September normals.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1248 AM EDT Wednesday: No major changes in the short term.
A deamplifying h50 trough will remain in place over the eastern
Seaboard, slowly drifting off the Atlantic coast Thursday into
Friday.  A surface high will slowly meander out of the Hudson
Bay into eastern Quebec and Nova Scotia, driving continuous
northeasterly flow across the Carolinas.  As the trough weakens,
thicknesses will rise...so after another day of below-normal
temps on Thursday, highs will return to within a category of climo
on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1257 AM EDT Wednesday: Not much change in the extended,
either, as high pressure generally maintains control of the pattern.
Ensembles have come into marginally better agreement on an upper low
dipping out of Ontario into the Upper Mid-Atlantic Saturday into
Sunday, where prior cycles had no real consensus on its placement
(with some members not even depicting an upper low).  A very weak
reinforcing front will slide across the area in response over the
weekend, but any associated moisture/precip should remain well to
our north.  Temperatures will continue to climb through the period,
climbing 1-2 categories above climo by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Areas of fog/low stratus are forecast
to clear the mountain valleys by late morning, with KAVL likely
going VFR by 13Z or so. Valley fog and low stratus will return
late tonight, and may prove to be a little more extensive than
today. Nevertheless, only have sufficient confidence to forecast
MVFR fog with SCT003 at KAVL between 09-12Z Thursday. Otherwise,
VFR will continue through this forecast period. An area of mostly
SCT/BKN stratocu in the 045-050 range near KHKY and KCLT this
morning is expected to lift and become FEW/SCT by late morning. NNE
winds of 5-10 kts today will become light/variable or light NNE
tonight into Thursday.
Outlook: Dry and mostly VFR through the end of the week, except
for the steadily increasing potential for morning mountain valley
fog and/or low stratus.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JDL

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion