Tunnelton, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

924
FXUS61 KPBZ 061151
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
751 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and possibly a rumble of thunder will accompany a weak
cold front overnight and into the morning. Dry and cooler
temperatures expected Saturday afternoon into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Waves of rain, moderate at times, are possible today but
  favoring locations south and east of Pittsburgh
- High temperature will be around 10 degrees below normal
---------------------------------------------------------------
An embedded mid-level shortwave rounding the eastern flank of
the broad upper level trough will provide jet-induced lift
through early this morning to produce areas of showers and
localized thunderstorms. Available soundings show limited
buoyancy should prevent storms from developing severe wind
despite 40kts of effective shear and 40-50kts of SW wind at
700mb. As the wave translates ENE through 10am, expect storms
capable of lightning, gusty wind up to 40 mph, and periods of
moderate rain while generally staying east of I-77 in Ohio.
Hi-res modeling indicates a precipitation lull period developing
around 10am in between shortwave movements before the next wave
increases shower activity after noon. By this time, the prior
wave will have pushed the surface cold front SE through most of
the region; this means buoyancy will be neigh available and
lightning potential will be low (let alone any severe threat).
As the upper trough axis inches near the region late in the day,
the precipitation line will shift east of the area as dry
slotting begins to erode clouds west to east. Though late-day
sunshine can`t be ruled out, it will be too little, too late as
area temperature struggles to reach 70 due to cloud cover and
surface cold advection.
Dry advection and building surface high pressure favors mostly
clear overnight skies that leads to morning lows dipping into
the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry but seasonably cool weather Sunday, save for a localized
  shower north of I-80
- Warming trend begins Monday
--------------------------------------------------------------
The main upper level trough axis is expected to cross the upper
Ohio River Valley through the day Sunday; this will maintain
seasonably cool temperature given cold air aloft and continued
cold advection at the surface. Modeled streamlines suggest that
any afternoon lake enhanced shower activity due to lake/air
temperature differences and trough-induced lift should stay near
the short of Lake Erie, but a non-zero chance for a shower
remains north of I-80.
Confidence is high in upper level height rises in the wake of
the trough passage Monday while surface high pressure becomes
entrenched over the Ohio River Valley. This will result in dry
weather and gradually rising (but still below normal)
temperature.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Gradual warm up with continued dry weather through mid-week.
- Temperature uncertainty grows late-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble guidance remains in fairly decent alignment of
continued height rises resulting in weak flow aloft Tuesday,
though the eastern CONUS will stay underneath broad/elongated
troughing. There is high confidence in continued rising
temperature and dry weather Tuesday. Weak shortwave troughing
may start to dig north of the region late Tuesday into
Wednesday, but there is strong consensus that impacts are
negligible as surface high pressure dominates; thus, expect
another dry day with near average temperature.
Long range analysis shows a bit of a battle between the
positioning/strength of a central CONUS ridge and potential
shortwave movements through New England troughing. The upper
Ohio River Valley currently appears to be situated where dry
weather should prevail regardless of the likely outcome
scenarios and only see subtle temperature differences. It is
then reasonable to look for dry weather to persist into next
weekend with near normal temperature, with non-impactful
temperature fluctuations depending on trough positioning/depth.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Generally light rain at 12Z with localized ceiling restrictions
will largely pull out of the region by mid-morning, leaving
cloudy but generally VFR conditions. A second wave of light rain
is forecast during the midday/afternoon hours, which will
generally not be very restrictive except perhaps to borderline
MVFR visibility at times. MGW has the best chance of seeing
similar categories with ceiling.
Clouds are expected to break from west to east during the
evening and nighttime hours. VFR continues initially. Although
not depicted in current TAFS, a round of fog is possible
tonight, at least in valleys, but HREF does show some potential
for a more widespread event. That possibility will be evaluated
for future updates.
.OUTLOOK....
VFR is largely expected (other than early morning vly fg)
through mid week with high pressure in control.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...CL

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion