Turley, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

856
FXUS65 KABQ 071233 AAC
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
633 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- A warming and drying trend will occur early this week with
  isolated showers and storms favoring eastern areas today, the
  southern high terrain Monday, and the western and central high
  terrain Tuesday.
- Potential exists for a few storms across the northeast and east
  central plains to become strong to severe from mid this
  afternoon through this evening. Main hazards will be damaging
  wind gusts and large hail.
- Wetter and more active weather looks to return Wednesday through
  Friday with a greater coverage of showers and storms,
  especially across western and central New Mexico.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Dense fog has cleared out at Clines Corners and Raton Pass, but
still remains at Las Vegas based on the NMDOT camera and satellite
imagery. For that reason, have cancelled all zones except for the
northeast highlands, including Las Vegas. Some localized fog can
also be seen in Sandia Park based on the NMDOT camera there. Any
localized fog should burn off within the next 1 to 2 hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1235 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A shortwave embedded in the large scale northwest flow across
the state is moving across the state early this morning with a
weakening cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms across the
central highlands. Mid level clouds should slowly taper off heading
towards sunrise today. However, with the drying mid and upper levels
combined with low surface dewpoint depressions, low clouds and
patchy fog cannot be ruled out across valley locations across
western and central NM, the central highlands and the eastern plains
around sunrise Dry northwest flow and shortwave ridging moves into
the state during the day today helping to result in a much drier day
across much the state. The one exception will be across the eastern
plains where a few isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out
due to southerly flow at the surface keeping higher moisture across
this part of the state. If storms do develop across the northeast
and east central plains, severe wind gusts and large hail cannot
be ruled out due to the northwest flow aloft resulting in a
sufficient amount of effective bulk shear. SPC has included a
marginal risk from mid this afternoon through this evening across
this part of the state. Temperatures, especially across eastern
NM, will be warmer and closer to normal for early September due to
much clearer skies compared to the last few days. Heading towards
sunrise Monday morning, low dewpoint depressions will once again
result in the potential for low clouds across parts of the eastern
plains, especially locations in the Pecos River Valley. An ideal
start to the work week is expected on Monday as shortwave ridging
moves directly overhead. Temperatures will be right around to
slightly above average for early September. A stray shower or
storm cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and early evening
across the southern high terrain due to lingering higher moisture
across this part of the state.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1235 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Tuesday marks the very beginning stages of a transition back to a
wetter pattern. The shortwave ridge axis will begin to move into
into the High Plains as an 569 dam 500 mb upper low moves into the
Pacific NW. A weak shortwave between the upper low and ridge axis
will move across the Four Corners area. This shortwave combined with
daytime heating and modest PWAT values of 0.6 to 0.8 inches will
result in the development of mostly isolated drier shower and
thunderstorm activity across the western and central high terrain. A
scattered to numerous coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity
is expected across western and central NM Wednesday through Friday
due to moist south-southwest flow between the upper low over the
interior Pacific NW and northern Great Basin and the upper level
ridge over the Great Plains. PWATS across this part of the state
will be around 0.7 to 0.9 inches which is around the 75th to 90th
percentile for mid September based on sounding climatology.
Additionally, increasing flow aloft and southeast surface flow will
help to increase speed and directional shear allowing a few storms
across northern NM to potentially become strong to severe. The HPCC
and Ruidoso burn scars look to be eastern edge of the better shower
and thunderstorm coverage until around Friday as the upper low
begins to open up into a trough and move northeast into the northern
Rockies. Quicker northeast storm motions will also help to limit the
flash flood threat with multiple rounds of storms needed to increase
the flash flood risk. The eastern plains look to remain mostly dry
until late Friday due to being more under the influence of the upper
ridge over the Great Plains.
Come the weekend, the upper level trough slowly moves northeast
into the northern Great Plains with drier westerly flow moving
into far western NM. Moisture still lingers across central and
eastern NM, though, with PWATS around 0.7 to 1 inch helping to
keep a scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms across
these parts of the state.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Areas of IFR to LIFR conditions from low clouds and patchy fog
across the northern Sandia Mountains, northeast and central
highlands, and northeast plains will persist through around 15Z
before quickly burning off as drier northwest flow moves in.
Heading into Sunday afternoon, isolated to widely scattered
showers will be possible across the eastern plains TAF sites.
Strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out across northeast and
east central NM with the main threats being damaging wind gusts
and large hail. Any storms will exit into West Texas during the
mid to late evening hours. Some hi res guidance is showing the
potential for low clouds across parts of the eastern plains,
especially locations in the Pecos River Valley, right at the end
of the TAF period around sunrise Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1235 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
No critical fire weather conditions expected through late next week.
drier and warmer weather returns Sunday and Monday. A transition to
a wetter pattern across western and central NM begins Tuesday fully
arriving Wednesday through Friday. Faster storm motions will help to
limit the flash flood threat on recent burn scars. Drier westerly
flow looks to move into far western NM with scattered showers
and thunderstorm coverage favoring central and eastern NM next
weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  85  56  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  82  41  82  43 /   5   0   0   0
Cuba............................  80  51  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  83  49  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  79  51  81  51 /   5   0   5   0
Grants..........................  83  51  85  51 /   5   5   5   0
Quemado.........................  80  51  83  53 /   0   0   5   5
Magdalena.......................  81  57  83  58 /  10   5   5   5
Datil...........................  79  51  80  52 /   5   5  10   5
Reserve.........................  87  51  88  52 /  10   5  10   5
Glenwood........................  90  57  91  57 /  10  10   5   5
Chama...........................  75  43  77  45 /  20   5   5   0
Los Alamos......................  77  56  79  56 /  10   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  77  51  80  52 /  10   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  75  50  78  50 /  10   5   0   0
Red River.......................  67  42  70  42 /  20   5   0   0
Angel Fire......................  71  36  74  35 /  20   5   0   0
Taos............................  78  47  82  47 /  10   5   0   0
Mora............................  75  46  77  48 /  20   5   5   0
Espanola........................  84  53  86  53 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  77  56  80  56 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  81  53  84  54 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  85  64  87  65 /   5   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  88  61  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  90  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  88  61  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  89  58  91  58 /   5   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  88  60  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  88  57  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  89  61  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  88  59  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  83  59  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  88  61  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  90  62  93  62 /   5   5   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  80  55  82  55 /   5   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  81  56  83  58 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  82  51  84  52 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  83  49  85  50 /   5   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  77  53  80  55 /  10   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  81  54  83  54 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  80  54  83  54 /  10   0   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  83  59  85  61 /  10   5  10   0
Ruidoso.........................  75  55  78  57 /  20   5  20   5
Capulin.........................  75  51  80  50 /  20  20   0   0
Raton...........................  78  51  83  49 /  20   5   0   0
Springer........................  80  51  85  49 /  20   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  77  49  82  50 /  20   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  80  59  86  57 /  20  20   0   0
Roy.............................  77  54  85  52 /  20  20   0   0
Conchas.........................  85  60  90  57 /  20  20   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  83  56  88  55 /  20  10   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  82  59  88  58 /  20  20   0   0
Clovis..........................  83  61  90  62 /  20  20   5   5
Portales........................  83  61  90  62 /  20  20  10   5
Fort Sumner.....................  85  61  90  60 /  20  20   0   0
Roswell.........................  87  64  92  63 /  20  20   5   0
Picacho.........................  82  56  88  58 /  20  10  10   0
Elk.............................  80  55  85  57 /  20  10  10   0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ229.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion