Twin Oaks, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

196
FXUS64 KTSA 011125
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
625 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Patchy fog could impact Wednesday morning commute.
- Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Patchy fog around the area this morning could be dense in spots and
impact the morning commute, especially across portions of northwest
Arkansas. Ample sunshine should aid in the fog quickly dissipating
by mid morning with an otherwise un-impactful forecast in place for
the rest of the day. The surface ridge axis remains planted over the
region throughout today, while upper level ridging begins to expand
into the area from the southwest. This will allow temperatures to
creep up a couple degrees this afternoon from yesterday, with highs
generally in the upper 80s across the region under clear skies and
light easterly to southeasterly winds. Another mild night will be in
store as lows only drop into the 60s to upper 50s in some of the
normally cooler locations.
Bowlan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Upper ridging expands and strengthens heading into Thursday and
Friday, which should be the warmest days of the period. Many places
across eastern Oklahoma will likely approach or exceed 90 degrees
each afternoon. Increasing low to mid level moisture across western
Arkansas on the western fringe of the exiting low level ridge axis
could lead to a few afternoon showers or possibly a thunderstorm on
Thursday. Coverage of any shower activity would be rather spotty at
best, but a few locations could see some rain Thursday afternoon and
at least low (10-15%) PoPs will be maintained through this period.
The mid level ridge will strengthen by Friday removing any chance of
showers Friday afternoon across the region and once again highs will
approach 90 degrees.
Heading into the weekend, an upper level trough moving through the
Desert Southwest and lifting northeast across the Central and
Northern Plains will act to push the ridge back south of the region
and allow temperatures to come down slightly, though still well
above normal for this time of year. Trends have continued to show
that a frontal boundary will remain well north of the local region
as this wave lifts northeast into Canada and thus, rain chances
remain minimal (10% or less) through the weekend. Next week is a
little more uncertain at this point, though guidance has come into
better agreement in bringing a tropical low out of the Gulf
northward across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas early next
week. This would at least allow for some scattered showers during
the afternoon as moisture increases. We will again be watching for a
frontal boundary to drop down into the region by the middle to
latter part of next week with better rain chances and cooler
temperatures, though the bulk of ensemble guidance remains mainly
warm and dry through the next 7 to 10 days.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Patchy dense fog has developed across portions of far northwest AR
this morning, mainly impacting FYV and ROG so far. Meanwhile, less
dense, reduced visibilities have been reported at BVO and RVS.
Did maintain a TEMPO group for light fog at FSM through 13z,
though confidence is low that any fog will reach the terminal.
Guidance indicates any fog will lift and dissipate between 14-15z
this morning. Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail through this
evening and into the overnight hours tonight, with FEW-SCT, and
occasionally BKN mid/upper-level clouds and light winds. Hi-res
model guidance continues to suggest fog potential looks less
likely Thursday morning.
Mejia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   88  66  90  65 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   88  62  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   86  59  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   86  60  87  62 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   85  61  85  61 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   86  63  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   86  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   87  62  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   86  63  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...67

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion