Ulysses, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

446
FXUS63 KOAX 191058
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
558 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog will impact portions of the area this morning,
  resulting in limitations to visibility.
- A series of disturbances will make their way through the
  region, bringing a few chances for showers and thunderstorms.
- Expect a gradual warming trend through Monday with highs
  returning to the upper 70s to low-80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Patchy fog has developed across areas primarily along and east of
the Missouri River. Visibility reductions of under one mile are
expected at times. If needing to travel, use caution.
The forecast period starts out with an active weather pattern over
the Central Plains. An upper ridge will be in place over the Bighorn
Mountains and the Rockies. An upper trough will be situated over
eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, western Iowa, and northwestern
Missouri. A closed upper low over the Dakotas this morning will
slide to the southeast through the day, moving across the forecast
area this afternoon. Heading into the afternoon, there will be a 20-
30% chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning west to east.
Chances increase (30-60%) heading into the evening and overnight
hours before tapering off Saturday morning. Expect some fall-like
temperatures with highs ranging from the low to mid-70s for ares
along and north of I-80 and the mid to upper 70s for areas south.
Lows will be primarily in the 50s.
A series of shortwave troughs and disturbances will drop into the
CWA through the weekend and into Wednesday. Periodic chances for
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the course of the next
several days. As we start getting into Tuesday and Wednesday, there
is some significant deviance in where models bring a storm system.
Some models track the storm down into Kansas and Oklahoma on
Wednesday morning. Contrasting this, the GFS brings a low through
the Nebraska Panhandle before having it become an open wave.
This solution also lags considerably behind the ECMWF.
Saturday begins a three-day warming trend, with highs in the 80s
returning to the forecast area on Monday. Lows will be primarily in
the 50s and 60s.
Uncertainty continues the further out in the forecast we get with
many interpretations of what will actually transpire.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
KOFK/KLNK: Patchy fog should remain east of the terminals this
morning. Westerly winds persist around 0-10kts. Ceilings should
improve to VFR by around 17Z, with MVFR to VFR conditions
expected this evening into tonight. This afternoon and evening,
there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms, although
timing of impacts at the terminals is still a little
questionable.
KOMA: Patchy fog has developed for areas along and east of the
Missouri River this morning. Visibilities have been reduced as a
result. Fog should clear out by 15Z. Otherwise, westerly winds
prevail through the forecast period. Ceilings will return to VFR
conditions between 18-20Z. There is a chance of a few isolated
to scattered thunderstorms toward the afternoon and evening
hours. Omitted this from prevailing for now to lower certainty
in locations.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion