Upper Wheatfields, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

345
FXUS65 KFGZ 092336
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
436 PM MST Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Expect breezy and cooler weather from Wednesday through
Friday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms. Dry conditions
develop again for next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A slow moving trough will meander through the western
states for the next week or so, significantly changing our weather.
Ahead of the trough, drier and capped mid-level air has limited us
to fair weather cumulus today, with increased breezes. We will then
transition to lower hghts and cyclonic flow for the remainder of the
week. This also means further increased southwest winds, especially
Wednesday and Thursday, as the trough moves into the Great Basin.
The trough may tap into some of the remnant monsoonal moisture pool
as early as tomorrow, which could lead to some strong thunderstorms.
Currently, the best chance for this moisture tap looks like eastern
Arizona, Thursday and Friday. The bigger story is the winds, which
will top 40 to 45 mph by Thursday, this will be the most wind seen
in some time and a Wind Advisory has been issued. Fire danger isn`t
horrible right now, but this pattern will need to be watched.
By next weekend, the trough ejects and winds will come down. The air
mass trailing the trough will be quite dry, so expect a sunny and
seasonably cool weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Wednesday 10/00Z through Thursday 11/00Z...VFR
conditions expected, Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible eastern
Arizona mountains. Winds light and variable or terrain driven
overnight, increasing to S-SW 15-25kts, gusts 35-40kts after
15-18Z.
OUTLOOK...Thursday 11/00Z through Saturday 13/00Z...VFR
conditions, isolated -SHRA/-TSRA over higher terrain, with best
chances over eastern Arizona mountains. Winds S-SW 10-20kts,
gusts to 35kts during the day Thursday and Friday, S-SW 5-10kts
overnights.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Turning cooler. Chance for showers and thunderstorms
each day, especially across eastern Arizona. South/southwest winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph each day. Minimum RH 15-30% each
afternoon.
Friday through Sunday...Remaining cool. Chance for showers and
thunderstorms mainly across eastern Arizona on Friday, otherwise dry
conditions. Winds southwest 5-15 mph each afternoon. Minimum RH 15-
30% on Friday, dropping to 10-20% over the weekend.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/
Wednesday for AZZ004-006>009-012-013-015-016-039-040.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion