Verhalen, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

372
FXUS64 KMAF 201102
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
602 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 602 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms (15-40%) continue
  today across southeast New Mexico, Lower Trans Pecos, and
  in/around the higher terrain. The primary threats with the
  strongest storms will be lightning and brief heavy rainfall.
- Near-record high temperatures expected Sunday and Monday.
- Cooler temperatures and increased rain chances return by the
  middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A more unsettled early morning across the area can be seen today on
IR satellite and radar imagery. Two main regions of unsettled
weather are showers/storms over SE NM plains moving into Upper Trans
Pecos, and showers/storms over Hudspeth County moving into Culberson
County. The stronger of these showers/storms are moving into
Culberson County, but overall trend is for these showers/storms to
dissipate as they move into Culberson County, consistent with CAMs.
Scattered to broken cloud cover again persists over much of the area
today. Despite this, building mid to upper ridging and southerly
winds by mid morning will allow highs to warm a few degrees compared
to yesterday, with lower to mid 90s F, mid to upper 80s F higher
elevations and much of Lea County into northwest Permian Basin, and
mid to upper 90s F Presidio Valley into Big Bend, with triple digit
readings possible in the Big Bend. Showers/storms are again expected
to develop in the afternoon with heating of elevated terrain,
upslope near surface flow, and disturbances aloft providing lift and
moisture. However, highest probability (25%-30%) will be located
across Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos, with CAMs also showing
isolated showers/storms over SE NM plains. Brief heavy rainfall and
lightning are the main threats, with a high probability of rainfall
remaining only within a few tenths of an inch where showers/storms
do occur. With loss of daytime heating in the evening, this activity
is expected to dissipate, with continued southerly winds and
scattered to broken cloud cover coupled with warmer daytime
temperatures taking longer to cool off meaning lows falling into
upper 60s F to lower 70s F, lower to mid 70s F along Rio Grande, and
upper 50s F to lower 60s F.
Near record warm temperatures are indicated for Sunday as mid to
upper ridging amplifies in advance of a deepening mid to upper
trough over the Pacific SW into Desert SW and provides large scale
sinking motion with very warm and dry conditions. Rain chances are
practically near zero Sunday. The lack of thick, low cloud cover
from absence of showers/storms and continued southerly winds means
highs rise into mid to upper 990s F, mid to upper 80s F higher
elevations, and upper 90s F to triple digits along Rio Grande. Winds
shifting from southerly to westerly will add a downslope warming
component as well, which will maintain leeward drying effects and
suppress convection that might otherwise occur from heating of
elevated terrain. With even higher daytime temperatures than today,
lows Sunday night in lower to mid 70s F Rio Grande into eastern
Stockton Plateau and Permian Basin, mid to upper 60s F Upper Trans
Pecos into most of western Permian Basin and southern SE NM plains,
and lower 60s F only for Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos as well
as northern Lea County are apparent. Very warm near record
temperatures continue into Monday, but the late season heat may be
short-lived. Read the long term discussion for more.&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The summer-like temperature trend continues on Monday. This is
thanks to the upper-level ridge remaining over the region. Slightly
warmer temperatures are forecast compared to Sunday where a few
locations look to reach the lower 100s. The current forecast for
Midland Intl Air and Space Port has a high of 100 degrees which
would tie the record temperature set back in 1977. Southeasterly
upslope flow enables very low (10-15%) rain chances across the
vicinity of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains Monday afternoon. Most
areas are expected to remain dry due to the subsidence from the
ridge of high pressure.
Tuesday, the ridge begins to weaken, thanks to an upper-level trough
swinging across the central Rockies. Shortwave pulses within the
flow of the weakening ridge allows for isolated to scattered rain
showers and storms to occur. This will prompt low rain (10-20%)
chances and "cooler" temperatures returning to the region. Ensemble
guidance is starting to trend towards a warmer solution for Tuesday
afternoon than previously predicted given the timing of the trough.
Highs are forecast to range in the upper 80s to mid 90s regionwide.
Tuesday night, the aforementioned trough ejects across the Central
Plains. Cluster analysis and ensemble guidance continues to show
split solutions to the upper-level pattern on Wednesday. The Euro
ensemble brings the trough further south across the region which
will provide near to slightly below normal temperatures and higher
rain chances. However, the GFS ensemble places the trough further
north, limiting rain chances and keeping near to slightly above
normal temperatures throughout next week. The GFS ensemble has the
trough digging further southward into the Southern Plains which did
not occur in previous runs. Nevertheless, the trough looks to push a
cold front into the region, providing cooler temperatures. There
remains uncertainty in the positioning of the trough which is going
to determine how cool temperatures will get, along with rain chances
across the area. This is something to monitor and details should be
ironed out as we get closer to time. Stay tuned!
Lamberson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The summer-like temperature trend continues on Monday. This is
thanks to the upper-level ridge remaining over the region. Slightly
warmer temperatures are forecast compared to Sunday where a few
locations look to reach the lower 100s. The current forecast for
Midland Intl Air and Space Port has a high of 100 degrees which
would tie the record temperature set back in 1977. Southeasterly
upslope flow enables very low (10-15%) rain chances across the
vicinity of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains Monday afternoon. Most
areas are expected to remain dry due to the subsidence from the
ridge of high pressure.
Tuesday, the ridge begins to weaken, thanks to an upper-level trough
swinging across the central Rockies. Shortwave pulses within the
flow of the weakening ridge allows for isolated to scattered rain
showers and storms to occur. This will prompt low rain (10-20%)
chances and "cooler" temperatures returning to the region. Ensemble
guidance is starting to trend towards a warmer solution for Tuesday
afternoon than previously predicted given the timing of the trough.
Highs are forecast to range in the upper 80s to mid 90s regionwide.
Tuesday night, the aforementioned trough ejects across the Central
Plains. Cluster analysis and ensemble guidance continues to show
split solutions to the upper-level pattern on Wednesday. The Euro
ensemble brings the trough further south across the region which
will provide near to slightly below normal temperatures and higher
rain chances. However, the GFS ensemble places the trough further
north, limiting rain chances and keeping near to slightly above
normal temperatures throughout next week. The GFS ensemble has the
trough digging further southward into the Southern Plains which did
not occur in previous runs. Nevertheless, the trough looks to push a
cold front into the region, providing cooler temperatures. There
remains uncertainty in the positioning of the trough which is going
to determine how cool temperatures will get, along with rain chances
across the area. This is something to monitor and details should be
ironed out as we get closer to time. Stay tuned!
Lamberson
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions forecast throughout TAF period, apart from MVFR or
lower conditions and gusty winds in isolated showers/storms for
any terminals in SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton
Plateau, where there is a low probability of showers/storms
occurring in the afternoon/evening 20Z-02Z. Southerly winds with
intermittent gusts up to 15 knots for terminals across Permian
Basin into Stockton Plateau beginning 14Z-18Z and continuing into
the evening before subsiding.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               92  69  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                 91  65  95  66 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   94  70  96  71 /  10   0  10   0
Fort Stockton            93  69  97  70 /  20  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           82  65  86  66 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    89  64  94  65 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    85  59  89  60 /  40   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     92  69  97  71 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                   91  69  95  71 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                     92  67  97  68 /  20  10   0   0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion