291 FXUS63 KTOP 250530 AFDTOPArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few showers and an isolated non-severe thunderstorm or two continue over eastern areas through this afternoon.
- Mostly patchy fog is possible overnight into early morning - not expecting widespread dense fog at this time.
- A dry pattern looks to remain in place for much of the period with seasonal temperatures in place.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
This afternoon, a few showers and a non-severe storm or two continue across eastern areas before the heating of the day allows for any showers and storm to dissolve as dry air continues to push generally south into the region. Fog may form mainly in river valleys overnight. Not anticipating any widespread dense fog formation as the low level dry air will tend to offset the overall radiational cooling aspects. Also, the northerly breeze may keep the boundary layer partially mixed helping to keep any fog that does form to remain shallow.
Expect a fairly quiet pattern to set up over the balance of this week through the weekend as the upper air pattern suggests that the main Westerlies reside well north of the region and a weak Omega block sets up over the central CONUS Thursday and Friday before flattening into the upcoming weekend. This should allow for little airmass change and generally pleasant conditions to remain in place through the this weekend. Expect highs to remain in the low 80s with lows in the upper 50s. With dewpoints mainly in the 50s and possibly low 60s, the overall humidity remains mostly comfortable.
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Have seen a bit of shallow fog already come and go at KTOP, and this should continue to occur at times through sunrise. Fog should be most prevalent in the river valley towards KTOP, though could also see a bit at KFOE and KMHK. Otherwise, clear skies and light winds through the period.
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.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.
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DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Reese
NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion