Walkerville, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

231
FXUS63 KGRR 021139
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
739 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions and increasingly warmer through Sunday
- Rain chances centered around Monday through Tuesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Dry conditions and increasingly warmer through Sunday
The slightly cooler conditions on Wednesday came to fruition as
expected with some slight cool air advection from the ENE out of
Eastern Canada. This low level flow is now in the process of veering
a bit more SSE as the sfc and upper ridging shifts east.
The upper ridge won`t be as amplified over the area, but will be
reinforced as the strong upper low digs over the SW portion of the
country through Friday. Couple this with a lack of low level
moisture advection over the area with the flow downsloping off of
the Appalachians, and we will see another 4 days of dry weather.
We will see max temps warm steadily through Sunday as the ridging re-
establishes itself over the area, and warmer air in the lower levels
at 850 mb warms a few degrees between now and Sunday. Latest
guidance is showing temps even a bit warmer than previous runs.
Probabilities for some record high temps have increased as a result.
The going records are listed below under the climate section.
- Rain chances centered around Monday through Tuesday
This extended streak of dry weather continues to look like it will
gradually come to an end beginning as early as Sunday night, and
more likely by Tuesday.
The strong upper low coming into the SW portion of the country will
gradually push the cold front at the leading edge of the trough over
the forecast area on Monday. The front will initially be dry as it
moves in, due to the antecedent dry conditions ahead of it with low
level dry air moving in downsloping off of the Appalachians.
We will see multiple short waves ride NE along the front as slowly
pushes east into Tuesday. Each subsequent short wave will help the
chance of rain as the low level flow becomes more favorable for rain
coming more out of the Gulf, and advecting better moisture up and
over the area. Tuesday looks to have the best chance of rain with
the front still close enough, short waves riding along the front,
and good moisture in place.
A fairly strong northern trough swings down through the area on
Tuesday night, and sweeps the front and all of the moisture with it
well east of the area.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 738 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Some patchy shallow ground fog has formed at KAZO and KJXN this
morning under a lighter wind regime. This obviously won`t last
long. Otherwise, high clouds continue to rule at all of the
terminals. This will continue for the first part of the day,
before they tend to clear out a bit later in the period. Winds
will generally start out from the east this morning, and go to
almost south this afternoon, before going SE after sunset.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Winds are a bit elevated over the nearshore waters this morning, but
remain below SCA criteria. The offshore component of the wind is
keeping the waves below criteria over our area. Winds diminish a bit
after this morning until later on Saturday. Later Saturday, we will
see winds increase across the northern half of the nearshore waters.
Conditions may remain below criteria until Saturday night or Sunday
morning, before winds and waves should come up above criteria.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Here are the record highs for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday for some
of our official climate sites. These records will be in jeopardy of
being broken with the warm weather expected those days.
                   Fri              Sat                  Sun
Grand Rapids    86 - 2023       87 - 1951          85 - 1946, 1922
Lansing         90 - 1898       86 - 1951, 1900    87 - 1922, 1900
Muskegon        85 - 2023       84 - 2023          83 - 2007
Kalamazoo       88 - 1953       90 - 1951          87 - 1922
Battle Creek    88 - 1953       87 - 1951          89 - 1900
Holland         86 - 1919       89 - 1951          85 - 2007
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ
CLIMATE...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion