Walnut Grove, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

037
FXUS63 KSGF 072310
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather continues through at least this week. Extended
  model guidance suggests below-average precipitation may
  continue well into the month of September.
- There is high confidence that above-average temperatures will
  return by the middle of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Northwest flow around an upper ridge over the Rockies through a
trough over eastern Canada has resulted in a dry mild fall day
today.
To go along with the very dry ground conditions, the 12z KSGF upper
air sounding this morning yielded a precipital water of just 0.64
which puts it in the 10th percentile for early September thus it`s
dry not only at the surface but also up through the vertical
column.
Another seasonably cool night will occur tonight as good radiational
cooling set up by clear skies and light winds will result in lows
ranging from the low-mid 40s over the eastern Ozarks to the mid 50s
along and west of I-49.
The surface high on Monday will start to slide eastward into New
England resulting in low level winds shifting more southerly.
This will lead 850 temperatures to warm a couple degrees with
associated warming at the ground as well. The approach of a weak
shortwave crossing the central Plains will result in some upper
level cloudiness without recovery to precipital water.
Of more return influence, the cold front that brought the mild
air mass this weekend has made its way into the Gulf allowing
the dry air mass to extend to the coast as well...which will
make it harder for Gulf moisture to return northward.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Isolated light showers associated with the above mentioned
shortwave may lead to showers along/west of I49 Monday night but
the dry low levels will largely cause rainfall to largely
evaporate as they fall.
The upper pattern will see the western ridge shift east into the
southern Plains midweek and remain the dominant feature into
next weekend. Climbing heights and 850 temperatures warming to
above 20 point toward surface temperatures reaching the upper
80s to lower 90s late in the week through the weekend.
Despite the return to southerly low level flow, moisture will be
slower to due to the above mentioned cold front reaching the
Gulf thus without any return flow little to no rain will occur
through next weekend.
The return to hot conditions along with the lack of rain will
exasperate the ongoing impact to vegetation and soils.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions will prevail across the area this evening
through the day on Monday. High level clouds will move across
the area tonight. Wind will be light and variable this evening
into tonight then become more south to southeastern and pick up
some on Monday.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Wise

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion