Wardboro, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

431
FXUS65 KPIH 251928
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
128 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure will keep afternoon temperatures warmer than
  normal through Monday, low temperatures at or above normal.
- Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms arrives
  in the southern highlands on Sunday afternoon, the rest on
  Monday afternoon.
- Unsettled and cool for much of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Satellite imagery shows ridge of high pressure across or just east
of East Idaho forecast area this afternoon. Closed low over Central
California spilling some moisture north through Nevada and Western
Utah, and some moisture is creeping close to the state line. High-
res models from this morning are still trying to depict potential
for a few showers to develop this evening and possible continuing
into overnight across the southern highlands as weak shortwave
weakens the northern stream of the split flow. Moisture is limited,
so confidence in anything more than virga or a sprinkle is low
through Friday morning. Shortwave trough shifts through during the
day on Friday, bringing return to dry conditions. Temperatures dip
behind this feature for Friday, with highs generally in the 70s for
the lower elevation areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Dry conditions continue into the weekend, with closed low continuing
to wobble around the desert southwest Saturday. Flow over Idaho
turns southwesterly again Saturday into Sunday, as Pacific trough
shifts toward the coast, opening the low over the south, and
bringing moisture north toward Idaho. A few showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening across the south give way
to more widespread precipitation Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures
cool drastically for Monday into mid week as precipitation and cloud
cover influence the region. Model blend means carry 0.50-1.00" three-
day precipitation totals for Monday through Wednesday night. Low end
probabilities are up to a magnitude lower at 0.05-0.25", with high
end probabilities supportive of 1.00-2.00" across broad swaths of
the region. Most of the precipitation should fall early in the week,
with frontal passage Wednesday as shortwave ejects northeast out of
the main trough, trending toward drier conditions. Most of the
region should see rain for this event, but will not be surprised to
see a fresh dusting at the highest peaks by the end. Trending toward
the end of the week, ensemble clusters differ in strength of eject
shortwave, and how much influence next shortwave should have on the
region. GFS is quicker in bringing in next trough, keeping the
region unsettled Thursday, while ECMWF is slower with a Friday
arrival, beyond the current 8-day forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Skies are essentially
clear at the moment but a brief period of mid/high clouds will push
through the region later this evening and into the first part of the
day on Friday. These won`t have much impact on aviation but the
forecast at least has mention of CIGs for the first time in a few
days. Light winds currently should continue into the day tomorrow
but after sunrise, will increase to around 10 to 15 kts with higher
gusts as skies look to clear once again.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A few more days of dry weather with above normal temperatures are
expected before things change significantly early next week. Until
then, expect mostly dry conditions until Sunday afternoon when we`ll
have our first chance for showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon RHs
will drop in the 20-25 percent range from this afternoon into Sunday
afternoon. Much better chances for rain exist from Monday into
Wednesday next week however. During that period, expect widespread
wetting rainfall and much cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s
and 60s looking increasingly likely beginning as early as
Tuesday.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...McKaughan

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion